2026 NHL Free Agency winners and losers: Why Leafs’ extreme makeover is justified

Could you “win” 2026 free agency with a class this barren? Or simply become king of the scrap heap?

The effect of the rising-cap world is real. Players aren’t squeezed off their teams the way they used to be. Most of the NHL’s elite unrestricted free agents re-signed with their clubs months before the market opened. The rising cap also makes it easier to facilitate big-ticket sign-and-trade deals and, just as top UFA forward Mitch Marner did a year ago, Alex Tuch secured his bag with a new team before July 1 this time.

The actual list of available 2026 UFAs thus was picked mostly clean by the time the market opened. Judging who “won” the day isn’t as simple as pointing out who spent the most extravagantly, then. With a field this thin and full of risky investments, smart spending was particularly imperative. So who managed their money the wisest on Day 1 of free agency?

Let’s break down the winners and losers – so far, keeping in mind that this entire offseason is a moving target with many more big transactions to come.

A few disclaimers before we dive in:

(a) For the sake of this exercise, Free Agency refers to UFAs, not RFAs. The likes of Pavel Dorofeyev and Sebastian Cossa thus don’t count. I’m not breaking down offseason winners and losers in this exercise – only who fared best in the July 1 UFA frenzy. Improvements or downgrades via trade are still considered – but more in the bigger-picture context of how teams spent their money on UFAs.

(b) If you acquired and signed your big UFAs before July 1, as the Washington Capitals did with Tuch and the Toronto Maple Leafs did with Darren Raddysh, that counts.

(c) If your favorite team isn’t mentioned at all in this space: it means they survived but didn’t thrive and thus didn’t fit the criteria of the winner or loser bucket. The Carolina Hurricanes are an example. The defending champs are stacked, have most of their top players signed long-term and can still enter next season as an elite contender without changing much of their roster.

WINNERS

Edmonton Oilers

First off: when we saw the dollar figures chucked round July 1, it quickly became clear the Oilers locked center Jason Dickinson and defenseman Connor Murphy in at reasonable AAVs. Murphy, for instance, is one of the best penalty-killing defensemen in the game and a better actual defender than Jacob Trouba, and Murphy re-signed for less than half what the San Jose Sharks paid for Trouba. We can’t officially count the Darnell Nurse trade as a “free-agency” move, but it indirectly helped. Not only did it net an asset with upside in big Shakir Mukhamadullin, but it freed up $9.25 million in cap space. A chunk of that went to underrated puck mover Ryan Shea, a solid UFA buy whose game is like a young Brett Kulak’s, and the Oil also re-upped their leading 2026 playoff goal scorer in Kasperi Kapanen. And hey, at least Freddie Andersen is a step in a new direction in net and can keep the crease warm until fellow new Oiler Devon Levi is ready.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers walked away from paying goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and landed the younger Jacob Markstrom via trade at a lower AAV. The savings from that change were enough to bring in Radko Gudas on a sweetheart cap-circumvention deal for “six years” at a $1.5-million AAV. Gudas can bring his bone-crunching goonery in a sheltered third-pair role and, given his physically taxing style, will almost certainly ride off into the LTIR sunset in a year or two. Filtered through the lens of June’s Brady Tkachuk trade and the lovely value on Eetu Luostarinen’s extension, and GM Bill Zito had a tidy couple weeks. Markstrom, Tkachuk, Garnet Hathaway and Gudas > Bobrovsky, Evan Rodrigues and, don’t forget, A.J. Greer, another UFA Florida wisely walked away from after his career year.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Operation ‘Appease Auston Matthews’ is in full swing. Signing Raddysh, arguably the top UFA defenseman on the market, through a June sign-and-trade that pays him for eight seasons beginning at age 30 erased any doubt that Toronto wants to stay competitive as long as Matthews remains with the team. The Leafs stayed incredibly aggressive in the UFA market Wednesday. Bobrovsky represents their highest-profile goalie gambit since Ed Belfour more than 20 years ago; it remains to be seen what future Hall of Famer ‘Bob’ has left, turning 38 in September, but he’s only a year removed from back-to-back Stanley Cup wins, and the three-year contract term isn’t too prohibitive. Adding Jack Roslovic, a.k.a. Matthews’ old linemate at USA Hockey’s National Team Development program, and Colton Sissons, a versatile bottom-six center who wore many hats in the lineup for the Vegas Golden Knights during their run to the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Final, along with checking pivot Teddy Blueger and speedy Brandon Duhaime, deepens the forward group. Once you factor in the trade for analytics darling defenseman Emil Andrae last month, dealing goalie and surplus asset Dennis Hildeby for third-line center Nick Paul Wednesday and, of course, picking Gavin McKenna first overall in the 2026 Draft: the Leafs are an improved team year over year coming out of July 1 – most notably in their foot speed. Will their current path prove to the be the wrong one? Perhaps, as the Leafs’ contention window may have closed already, and this team is so radically different now that chemistry won’t necessarily come easily. But on the other hand, GM John Chayka may have cranked the window back open, which he had no choice to do with Matthews and fellow veterans such William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Chris Tanev under contract. The time to rebuild is if and when Matthews walks away, whether that’s in 2028 when he’s a UFA or a year from now when he’s extension eligible. But the time is not now, and the Leafs deserve credit for taking extremely decisive steps to reload and reinvent. You have to go all in as long as you have No. 34, and it’s worth noting most of the deals Chayka handed out were short-term, Raddysh’s excepted.

Utah Mammoth

The Mammoth’s steady upward trajectory continues. They secured a potential long-term starting goalie with the Sebastian Cossa trade last week, they got deeper up the middle with the Vincent Trocheck acquisition Monday and, on the UFA side of things, they complemented an already-deep forward group with Anders Lee, whose play-driving metrics remain fantastic even in his mid-30s. The Mammoth have some exciting prospects still coming down the pipeline at forward in Tij Iginla and Caleb Desnoyers but are loaded enough up front that those players will earn their way onto the team when ready rather than be forced into the lineup too soon, which is ideal. The Mammoth became a playoff team this past season and appear to be evolving into a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender before our eyes. But do they match the Barrett Hayton offer sheet? Very interesting.

Washington Capitals

It’s easy to forget the Caps are just a season removed from winning the Metropolitan Division. They missed the playoffs in 2025-26 but did so with 95 points and 10 more regulation wins than the Philadelphia Flyers, who made the big dance. Washington understands its potential to reload. It landed the top UFA forward in Tuch before trading for Jordan Kyrou. Then it secured the top remaining UFA center entering July 1 in Boone Jenner, with a bit too much term for an injury-prone 33-year-old at four years but offset by a reasonable cap hit south of $6 million. And the Vincent Desharnais contract was sneaky-good once we get past the sticker shock. Desharnais cannot move the puck, to be clear, but he’s more than just a lumbering giant. He has 70th-percentile max skating speed, he was a 95th percentile defensive player in his sheltered minutes this past season, and he could be a defensively responsible partner for Cole Hutson on the third pair. Getting a full season of Huston and Ilya Protas as deadly rookies next year, on top of the veteran additions, makes the Caps the second-best team in the Metro on paper right now, in my opinion. Will Alex Ovechkin come back for a Last Dance on a cheapie one-year deal?

ASSIGNMENT INCOMPLETE

Anaheim Ducks

No more Gudas, no more Trouba, no more John Carlson. But the Ducks have to figure out what should be monster contracts for RFA forwards Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, plus one for defensemen Pavel Mintyukov, so GM Pat Verbeek has a lot to juggle. But so far, this team is down the whole right side of its D-corps, plus Olen Zellweger, plus Mason McTavish, so Verbeek has a ton of work left to maintain the gains that vaulted Anaheim into the playoffs this season. Blueliner Nick Jensen alone can’t patch all those holes, so he’s clearly just a start.

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres’ offseason is a work in progress. The good: Zach Benson’s contract, drafting Daxon Rudolph fourth overall and trading for Zellweger as a Bowen Byram Lite replacement. The bad: not really replacing Tuch yet. Opening up a roster spot for the excellent youngster Konsta Helenius is wise, but Buffalo surely won’t want to move backward after ending its 15-year playoff drought and still has close to $8 million in cap space, so I doubt GM Jarmo Kekalainen will let it go to waste.

Dallas Stars

Dallas was quiet in the UFA market July 1, understandably. This club is frozen until it figures out RFA Jason Robertson’s contract, which will be easier to do now that GM Jim Nill cleared cap space by trading Ilya Lyubushkin and RFA Mavrik Bourque. But how does Dallas not walk out of this offseason worse in the end?

Minnesota Wild

Walking away from Mats Zuccarello only to see him sign for $1 million plus bonuses in L.A. made the outcome all the more puzzling for the Wild, who only did minor tinkering as of press time Wednesday. We’re clearly waiting on a major move for a center, most likely Dylan Larkin, but the evaluation is incomplete until we know exactly how GM Bill Guerin intends to keep this team dangerous in a tough Central Division. Cap space is a problem right now.

Montreal Canadiens

Like the Wild, the Habs need to secure that No. 2 center, at least on a short-term basis while they wait for Michael Hage to go pro. Overall, July 1 was a great day because they signed Ivan Demidov to a phenomenal extension, but GM Kent Hughes was quiet on the UFA front. With Brendan Gallagher dealt to Vancouver, Montreal has enough cap space to make an upgrade up the middle, albeit RFAs Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc and Arber Xhekaj need new deals.

New Jersey Devils

Extending captain Nico Hischier was a big win. But the Devils barely made a ripple in the UFA waters. They haven’t replaced Markstrom in net, and nor have they sufficiently upgraded a supposed win-now operation trying to return to the playoffs after missing this past season. I doubt new GM Sunny Mehta is finished here and – *listens to earpiece* – OK then, we have the Hayton offer sheet. Is it a high enough number for Utah to relent?

Vegas Golden Knights

I see the Golden Knights, quiet aside from re-signing Ramus Andersson and Jeremy Lauzon, and I think of a speech from the movie Gladiator: “I have been told of a certain sea snake which has a very unusual method of attracting its prey. It will lie at the bottom of the ocean as if wounded. Then its enemies will approach, and yet it will lie quite still. And then its enemies will take little bites of it, and yet it remains still.” That’s what Vegas feels like to me. The Golden Knights have clearly gotten worse on paper, having not yet replaced Dorofeyev unless you count Victor Olofsson…but there’s something big coming, right? There always is with this team.

Winnipeg Jets

The Connor Hellebuyck situation hangs over Winnipeg’s offseason. We know this veteran team craves a No. 2 center and has too many core players signed long-term to stop trying to contend, but we won’t understand what Winnipeg’s team needs and cap space are until or unless a Hellebuyck trade happens. It’s thus understandable why the Jets’ only move of note July 1 was signing goaltender Stuart Skinner, who can straddle the line between Hellebuyck backup or insurance starter in the event the big trade happens. (UPDATE: the Jets got Mario Ferraro at a surprisingly good number. It’s a start. Still need that No. 2 center, though).

LOSERS

Boston Bruins

The Bruins were already a fairly fraudulent playoff entry in 2025-26, a poor defensive hockey club propped up by phenomenal seasons from goaltender Jeremy Swayman and right winger David Pastrnak, so merely duplicating this past season’s result was going to be tough. But several Eastern Conference clubs, including some that missed the playoffs last season, have been extremely active. Boston did land JJ Peterka last week. Deepening the D-corps with Will Borgen and Connor Clifton doesn’t move the needle enough. The Bruins need a major talent influx.

Columbus Blue Jackets

It’s understandable why the Jackets did so little on Wednesday, counting checker Ryan Lomberg as their biggest addition. If you’re a UFA who wants to win, how can you commit to a team whose reigning Norris Trophy winner’s future is in flux? The Jackets and Zach Werenski did come out with a late-afternoon statement reaffirming his commitment to stay in Columbus but, as Quinn Hughes, Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Larkin have taught us, talk is cheap. Whether the Werenski situation actually scared UFAs off is unknown, but it doesn’t feel like a coincidence that GM Don Waddell made no improvements to his team July 1.

Detroit Red Wings

Viktor Arvidsson is a good signing in a vacuum coming off a resurgent season. But zoom out and we have a team riding 10 consecutive playoff misses, sitting on captain Dylan Larkin’s trade request waiting on the right deal. Do additions like Arvidsson and grinder Keegan Kolesar mean anything in the context of a team whose direction is unknown? If Steve Yzerman was not Steve Yzerman, he’d have been fired from the Red Wings GM chair twice by now. What a disaster his tenure has been.

Los Angeles Kings

Woof. General manager Ken Holland is ushering the Kings back to his final days as Red Wings GM, when he doubled, tripled and quadrupled down on creaky, veteran teams that limped to playoff berths and were quickly ousted. When L.A. traded top prospect Liam Greentree to get Artemi Panarin at the deadline and then extended Panarin for two years, it was clear the Kings weren’t ready to walk away from the league’s Murky Middle. Following – what a surprise – a first-round sweep, they added centre Erik Haula, 35, and right winger Mats Zuccarello, 38. Both are perfectly fine signings independent of team context; Haula is a versatile middle-six pivot with good wheels, while Zuccarello’s power-play touch will be welcome to a Kings team that rannked 28th with the man advantage this past season. Corey Perry is back for his age-41 season, too. All these moves speak to a franchise in denial. The Kings have upped their odds of putting up another 90-point season, but their prospect pool is cleaned out, they don’t have enough long-term help for Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke, and they feel light years away from a Stanley Cup.

Nashville Predators

From David Poile to Barry Trotz and now Chris MacFarland…the insatiable quest for mediocrity has been transmitted from one Preds GM to the next like some kind of curse. Nashville already had a roster caught between core veterans on the wrong side of 30 and a good but not great next generation of prospects not ready to dominate at the NHL level…and their top signing Wednesday was speedy depth forward Alex Kerfoot, 31. He arrives on the same day the Preds added Lyubushkin to their D-corps, after they traded for Ross Colton and Jack Drury last week. Bourque is a great get, and Nils Hoglander is a fun buy-low, but the Preds overall remain a franchise unwilling to bottom out for the sake of long-term gain.

New York Rangers

Worse than a bad hockey team? A team without a clear plan. Trading for Dorofeyev last week was a win-now move. So was giving up a first-round pick for Marcus Pettersson. But GM Chris Drury also sold off Trocheck in a move that brought in Sean Durzi and prospect Cole Beaudoin. And the day’s work on the UFA side included one-year, mercenary style deals for forwards Oliver Bjorkstrand and Joe Veleno. Can someone explain what the Rangers’ vision here is? I have no idea.

Ottawa Senators

In terms of pieces in the lineup for next season, William Eklund won’t sufficiently match what Brady Tkachuk brought. The Sens’ forward corps is worse than last year’s, and it doesn’t look so far like Claude Giroux is re-signing. Ottawa also needs another right-shot, top-four defender to play with Thomas Chabot, but GM Steve Staois didn’t hook any fish in the market July 1. The available asset list has dwindled to the point Ottawa looks like a team that could regress next season unless Staios finds another big trade.

San Jose Sharks

I was buyin’ in…until I wasn’t. On the surface, I can understand what GM Mike Grier was doing. He wanted veteran defensive help to take pressure off Sam Dickinson and bridge the gap for fellow blue-chippers Keaton Verhoeff and Ryan Lin down the road. The Sharks added brand names on defense Wednesday, but did they get better? Trouba is in decline and hasn’t been an above-average defender since his Winnipeg days, as my colleague Scott Maxwell noted in his Buyer Beware guide earlier this week. Trouba would be fine in a sheltered role, but with an AAV of $8.25 million on his new deal, it looks like he’s going to play harder minutes, not easier minutes, something he hasn’t done well for years. Same goes for Nurse, who not only comes on the books at his full $9.25-million AAV for four more years, but cost the Sharks an asset to boot in Mukhamadullin. The Sharks had more leverage than the Oilers, who were desperate to move Nurse, so how was the acquisition cost so high? Worse yet, Trouba and Nurse replace two blueliners who actually graded out better this past season in Ferraro and Desharnais. Both would’ve cost far less to re-sign and wouldn’t have meant losing Mukhamadullin. Left winger Mason Marchment was a nice if pricey get on July 1, and the Sharks’ long-term ceiling is still extremely exciting, but they actually set their defense back with their moves Wednesday.

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