Who are the top contenders to win the Pac-12 in 2026?

The Pac-12 officially kicked off its new era, with six new teams joining the conference for football, on Wednesday, and right now, most projections agree that Boise State is the front-runner to win the Pac-12 Championship. But the gap behind the Broncos is where things get interesting.

Boise State is the pick, but not by a landslide

ESPN's SP+ model lists Boise State as the top Group of Six team in the country, and many other sources call the Broncos a heavy favorite to win the conference. Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson brings back quarterback Maddux Madsen for a fourth season, with running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who combined for more than 2,100 yards last season. The leader of their defense is edge-rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan; last season, the Broncos ranked 30th nationally for defensive success rate.

All that sounds nice until you notice the inconsistency. Boise State's average margin in its nine wins last season was +21.1 points and its average margin in five losses was -21.8, a swing that shows how up and down the Broncos can be. A Week 1 trip to Oregon is extremely likely to be an early punch before conference play even starts.

With all this said, the pack chasing isn't far behind. CBS Sports college football writer Josh Helmholdt noted the gap between Boise State and the rest of the league is not as wide as the odds suggest. He noted San Diego State, Texas State, Washington State, and Fresno State as the middle-tier teams that could make a race into November.

San Diego State returns quarterback Jayden Denegal and running back Lucky Sutton, both seniors, and enters as a legitimate No. 2 for the conference. Washington State is a wild card under first-year head coach Kirby Moore, who landed UC Davis transfer quarterback Caden Pinnick. Texas State, led by quarterback Brad Jackson, brings arguably the most explosive offense in the conference after Jackson totaled nearly 4,000 yards of offense in 2025. 

Fresno State is the sleeper contender

However, the sleeper team you should keep your eye on is Fresno State. The Bulldogs return 14 starters, including a defense that finished among the Mountain West's best a year ago, and they already beat Boise State in their head-to-head last season. Fresno State opens conference play with a brutal three-game stretch that includes a home game with the Broncos in between road trips to Washington State and San Diego State, a run that could decide where they end up at the end of the season.

The conference eight team format means one team is left without an opponent each week, so the league built in a week 13 flex game where every team faces a Pac-12 opponent for a second time. That means the title could hinge on a rematch no one knows yet, which adds a layer of unpredictability that didn't exist in the old format.

Boise State remains the safest pick on paper. Whether that holds up through a flex-week rematch and a middle tier that's closer than the odds make it seem depends entirely on how well the Broncos can play.