
The Boston Red Sox are on a nine-game winning streak and now pose a threat to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have fallen below them in the AL East standings. The Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Red Sox remain close in the division standings and also are part of a tight and crowded AL wild-card picture.
With the way the Red Sox have been performing, the Blue Jays need to be careful not to continue to fall in the standings. On July 2, the Red Sox were in last in the AL East and were 6.5 games out of a wild-card spot. But now, they sit 0.5 games behind the Twins for the final wild-card spot.
According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox have a current 39.6% chance of making the playoffs versus the Blue Jays' 25% chance. On June 22, the Red Sox had only an 8.4% chance to make the playoffs, and they've now increased their playoff chances by almost five times the amount.
Their second-half performances will weigh a big factor in their hopes of contending. The Red Sox are likely to shift from being sellers at the deadline to buyers following their recent hot stretch.
While the Blue Jays still have a chance to contend in the postseason as they remain 2.5 games out of an AL wild-card spot, the Red Sox carry the momentum going into the All-Star break. This is the chance for the Blue Jays to make a turnaround in the second-half of the season and make trades at the upcoming Aug. 3 deadline to improve their chances of contending.
On July 2, the Boston Red Sox were in last in the AL East, had the fourth-worst record in the league and were 6.5 games back of the final wild card spot with six teams to leap.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 12, 2026
Today, the Red Sox are a half-game behind Minnesota and Seattle for that final wild card spot. pic.twitter.com/bLcIujsW23
The Blue Jays lost the Seattle Mariners series, and while they did win the San Francisco Giants series while hoping to gain momentum, they then lost the series against the San Diego Padres.
The Red Sox have outperformed them in July and swept three series against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and New York Mets. They have also won 14 of their last 16 games.
The Blue Jays had the chance to win or even sweep the Padres series following back-to-back games losing by one run. They gained momentum in both games with late home runs from Ernie Clement in the third game and from Vladimir Guerrero Jr in the second game. But then found themselves in the loss column in the next inning and weren't able to come back. They have now fallen to 45-51 on the season, and the Red Sox are only two games below .500 (46-48).
Both teams came into this season with high expectations, but early-season struggles and injuries weighed them down. The Red Sox's comeback, though, has weighed on the Blue Jays' early July slump.
The Blue Jays' end-of-June troubles carried forward into July with the starting rotation continuing to be a red flag minus Dylan Cease, who has been the Blue Jays' most consistent starter. Conversely, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, and their starting pitching has been dominant with Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray, while also gaining an offensive spark from Anthony Seigler.
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