How confident NASCAR Cup Series drivers should be in race for final Chase spots

With only four races left in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, it's crunch time in the race to make the Chase. 

Thirteenth through 19th in the Cup Series standings are separated by only 77 points, and the next four races will be a mad dash by those on the bubble to get into the top 16. 

Here's how confident those bubble drivers should be about their chances of making the postseason on a scale of 1-10.

13. Joey Logano (+65) | Confidence level: 9

Not only does Logano have momentum on his side after winning at North Wilkesboro and finishing third at Indianapolis, but the rest of the regular season schedule lines up well for the No. 22 team. 

Ford and Penske have been good at short, flatter ovals this year, and Logano is always up front at Daytona. It's difficult to trust Ford to bring fast cars to the track over the next four races, but Logano and the No. 22 team always seem to turn up the wick in pressure-packed situations.

14. Bubba Wallace (+60) | Confidence level: 6

Wallace has about a one-race gap to the cut line, though his advantage over 17th could be much higher if not for a costly penalty at Atlanta. 

The next three tracks — Iowa, Richmond and New Hampshire — on the schedule haven't been great for Wallace, though he's run top 10 at all of them in the Next-Gen era. However, 23XI Racing's short track package still has a ways to go. 

Daytona, and drafting tracks in general, have been good to Wallace throughout his career, but relying on a good superspeedway result isn't much of a strategy. Top-10 runs at two of the next four races and avoiding disaster in the other two should be enough to get Wallace back into the postseason. 

15. Shane van Gisbergen (+57) | Confidence level: 5

On one hand, SVG has improved greatly at ovals this season. On the other, he's still learning, and perhaps more importantly, Trackhouse Racing is struggling to find consistent speed. 

The fact that the next three races are on shorter ovals should play into van Gisbergen's hands, and he's proven to be a solid superspeedway racer. But unless he's holding a gap of over 50 points with two races left, it's hard to say that he can be trusted to make the Chase. 

16. Austin Cindric (+38) | Confidence level: 6

Cindric and the No. 2 Penske group should have decent pace over the next four races, and he'll likely be in contention for the win at Daytona. The question is whether or not Cindric, who has finished either 13th or 14th over the last five races, can find enough speed to finish top 10 once or twice to seal up a Chase spot, as he can't assume that four more 15th-place runs are going to be enough. 

17. Ryan Preece (-38) | Confidence level: 4

Nothing against Preece, but the No. 60 team backslid through most of the summer before back-to-back top 10s at Wilkesboro and Indy. The next four tracks line up well for Preece, but he'll likely need two or three huge points days to close the gap on Cindric, and that's not necessarily something that can be counted on. 

18. Erik Jones (-44) | Confidence level: 2

Like SVG, it's far easier to trust Jones than his team. LEGACY Motor Club has made strides this season but is still yet to consistently bring top-10 cars to the track every week for Jones, who needs to put four solid weeks at Daytona. If he can stay out of trouble and within striking distance over the next three races, a win on the Florida high banks and some carnage behind him is his best chance at snagging a Chase berth. 

19. Brad Keselowski (-50) | Confidence level: 5

The next four tracks line up well for the 2012 champion, who has a wealth of experience to prepare him for the stretch run to the Chase. However, the No. 6 team also spent much of the summer hemorrhaging points to the cut line, and it's hard to trust a group that's been so inconsistent all year. Like Jones, Daytona may be Keselowski's best shot to make something happen.