NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 preview: Favorite, underdog, top storylines

On Sunday, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series kick off a three-race stretch at 1.5-mile tracks in the running of the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Here is what you need to know ahead of the fourth race of the Chase.

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+380, per DraftKings)

Following his runner-up finish at Bristol and third top-five finish in as many races to begin the Chase, the two-time Cup Series champion enters the "Sunflower State" as the new points leader (+1) over Denny Hamlin, with more traditional stops at the intermediate tracks on deck over the next three weeks.

Even during an uncharacteristic regular season for his standards, Larson led 78 laps and finished second in the spring race at Kansas. Since he joined Hendrick Motorsports ahead of the 2021 season, Larson has been as consistent as anyone at Kansas with 839 laps led there and three wins in the 11 races.

Underdog: Chris Buescher (+3500, per DraftKings)

The RFK Racing Fords have not been anywhere near the front consistently on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and Buescher currently sits 15th of the 16 drivers in points with finishes of 13th or worse in each of the first three Chase races.

That said, Buescher has quietly finished inside the top 10 in three of the five traditional 1.5-mile races this season, and his overall success at Kansas cannot be ignored, either. He was runner-up to Larson in the closest finish in NASCAR history (0.001 seconds) back in the 2024 spring race and has four top-11 finishes in the last five races there.

Crucial stretch on tap for Joey Logano

Although Logano's dramatic win in the Bristol Night Race was overshadowed by the post-race fight between Carson Hocevar and Ryan Blaney, it was his third win since July 19 and vaulted him all the way up to third in points (-16) amid his late-season title surge.

While Logano will start Sunday's race from the pole after the cancellation of practice and qualifying forced NASCAR to set the lineup by the rulebook, his hopes for a fourth title could rest on the next three weeks.

He has three wins at Kansas - all in the postseason - but the venue has been "hit or miss" for Logano in his career. Furthermore, he has scored 29 points or less in each of the 1.5-mile races this season and only has one top-10 (Charlotte), meaning the upcoming 1.5-mile stretch could play a huge role in Logano's latest title pursuit. 

Toyota looking to continue dominance at intermediate tracks

When the series has raced at 1.5-mile venues this season, it has been Toyota against the field in terms of speed. While Daniel Suarez (Charlotte) and Chase Elliott (Texas) spoiled the party for Chevrolet, Toyota has won three of the five 1.5-mile races and finished runner-up in the other two.

Hamlin has been the leader of the bunch with top fives in each race, but every Toyota Chase driver down to Bubba Wallace at 10th in the standings has been quick and should be the cream of the crop on Sunday.

Qualifying canceled once again

For the third time in the first four Chase weekends, drivers never got a chance to post a qualifying lap after Mother Nature made another appearance on Saturday morning. As a result, title-eligible drivers Chase Elliott (18th), Chase Briscoe (23rd) and Blaney (25th) have some work to do when the green flag waves and drivers take their first laps at speed all weekend.