Why history suggests Kansas could produce more drama as NASCAR's Chase heats up

From Christopher Bell's late pass for the win in the Southern 500 at Darlington and a track-record 18 cautions at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway to the post-race fight between Carson Hocevar and Ryan Blaney at Bristol, the return of NASCAR's Chase format has not lacked any drama so far.

While the upcoming stretch of three consecutive 1.5-mile races presents a little normalcy considering those traditional layouts make up a quarter of the schedule, Sunday's stop at Kansas Speedway (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) has not exactly been short on any drama itself in recent years.

Kyle Larson has surged all the way into the points lead and Joey Logano has quietly moved up to third amid his late-season title push, but any continuation of that momentum is uncertain at a track that has produced some of the most dramatic finishes in the sport lately.

Don't underestimate Kansas Speedway amid dramatic start to the Chase

When the Cup Series last ventured to the "Sunflower State" back in April, Larson led at the white flag, only for Tyler Reddick to make the winning pass in Turns 3 and 4 on the final lap for his fifth win in the first nine races.

In this race one year ago, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace engaged in a tight battle for the win on the final lap when the two got together and opened the bottom lane up for Chase Elliott to steal the victory.

And who can forget the closest finish in the sport's history when Larson nosed ahead of Chris Buescher by just 0.001 seconds in the 2024 spring race. 

In total, five of the last seven Kansas races have featured a pass for the win in the final two laps, four of which have been last-lap passes. Four of the last six have produced an overtime finish, while the driver who has led the most laps has only come away victorious once in the last eight races there.

If early 2026 returns and previous track history have a say, it is hard to overlook the Toyotas and Larson at Kansas. According to NASCAR Insights, Hamlin and Larson have led the most laps in 10 of the last 14 races there.