Trevor Lawrence is a dark-horse MVP candidate ... and so is Kirk Cousins

The NFL MVP conversation usually starts with the same names.

Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Patrick Mahomes. The quarterbacks who have established themselves as perennial candidates tend to dominate the discussion before the season even begins. But three weeks into the 2026 season, two quarterbacks have made compelling cases to at least enter the conversation.

Trevor Lawrence and Kirk Cousins probably aren't the first names that come to mind when discussing the MVP. They should be considered dark horses.

Trevor Lawrence's case for MVP

Lawrence's case is easier to understand. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1 after demolishing the New England Patriots 35-6 in Week 3, and Lawrence threw three touchdown passes in the victory. 

Through three games, Lawrence has thrown for 616 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions while posting a 107.8 passer rating. Those numbers aren't enough to put Lawrence at the front of the MVP race. His larger body of work is what makes him interesting.

Lawrence finished the 2025 season playing some of the best football of his career and entered 2026 carrying that momentum. The Jaguars have now won 10 of their last 11 regular-season games.

If Lawrence keeps playing at that level and Jacksonville continues winning, the MVP conversation will become increasingly difficult to ignore.

Kirk Cousins' case for MVP

Then there's Cousins. His case is completely different. At age 38, Cousins was supposed to be approaching the end of his career when Atlanta moved on from him this offseason. He was supposed to be the bridge to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Instead, he has helped the Raiders start the season 3-0.

Cousins has been one of the NFL's most productive quarterbacks through three weeks, throwing for 661 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

He has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the Raiders' first three games, including Sunday's 35-27 victory over New Orleans. Cousins completed 22 of 33 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the win.

And this isn't simply a quarterback taking advantage of an easy schedule. Cousins has looked like a quarterback who understands exactly what he needs to do to keep an offense moving.

He became only the fourth quarterback age 38 or older to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of his team's first two games, joining a list that includes Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

How each QB can maintain an MVP case

The argument for both quarterbacks ultimately comes down to the same thing: keep winning.

Lawrence has the opportunity to establish himself as one of the NFL's elite young quarterbacks while leading Jacksonville back to the postseason. Cousins has the opportunity to pull off one of the more unexpected veteran resurgences in recent NFL history.

Neither needs to lead the league in every statistical category. They need to keep producing, avoid prolonged stretches of poor play and make sure their teams remain near the top of the AFC. Lawrence and Cousins don't need to win the argument in September. They need to remain part of it.

For Lawrence, that would represent the latest step in the development Jacksonville has been waiting for since selecting him No. 1 overall in 2021. For Cousins, it would be something entirely different: a late-career resurgence that nobody expected when he left Atlanta.

Three weeks into the season, both quarterbacks have earned the right to be mentioned. Maybe neither ultimately wins MVP. But if Lawrence keeps leading Jacksonville and Cousins keeps winning in Las Vegas, calling either one a dark horse won't sound nearly as crazy by December.