Texas QB Arch Manning slides out of first round in new mock draft

One NFL Draft analyst is no longer buying stock in Texas Longhorns junior quarterback Arch Manning. 

CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson published his latest mock draft on Monday, featuring five QBs in Round 1; Manning wasn't one of them. 

NFL Draft guru explains Arch Manning snub 

"Not only has Arch Manning not looked like the No. 1 overall pick, compared to recent draft classes, but he also hasn't even looked like a first-rounder," wrote Wilson.

Wilson then retraced to a September story to explain his point further. The piece used stats from Manning's first three games in 2026 to illustrate how he compares unfavorably to past first-round QBs. The Ringer's Todd McShay, meanwhile, isn't as low on Manning, but the longtime draft analyst believes he shouldn't enter the 2027 draft (scheduled April 29-May 1 in Washington).

"That's not even a knock," McShay said in a clip posted to his YouTube channel on Oct. 1. "That's like you're making a bunch of money. Let's keep building on this and get another season. And then when you go to the NFL, you're more ready."

Per On3's NIL database, Manning is making $2.5M this season (No. 20 among college athletes). That's more than some NFL QBs who weren't first-rounders. New Orleans Saints' second-year QB Tyler Shough, pick No. 40 in the 2025 draft, is set to earn $1.33M in base salary this season. 

Manning's NFL-readiness is also debatable after inconsistent play through his first four games. He led No. 1-ranked Texas (4-0) to wins over the Ohio State Buckeyes (24-23) and Tennessee Volunteers (20-17), but he ranks 12th among 16 SEC QBs in completion percentage (63.5 percent) and ninth in passing yards per game (215.5). Don't pin all the underwhelming numbers on the QB. 

Texas isn't letting Manning run as frequently this season, which may be preventing the QB from finding his rhythm. Junior wide receiver Cam Coleman isn't justifying his $3M price tag, either. Coleman is averaging a career-low 52 receiving yards per game after logging 59 with the Auburn Tigers in 2025. 

Manning may not resemble a No. 1 overall pick, but let's cut the 22-year-old a break. Claiming he's not a first-rounder months before the draft is rash.

Why Arch Manning deserves slack 

Many draft experts fail to consider strength of schedule when scouting. For example, Miami Hurricanes junior QB Darian Mensah — the first passer selected in Wilson's newest mock — has had a much easier path than Manning thus far. (The Arizona Cardinals take Mensah with pick No. 3 in Wilson's mock.) 

As of Monday, ESPN Football Power Index ranks Miami No. 70 in strength of schedule. Texas, meanwhile, ranks No. 2.

Mensah faced his first real test in a 41-13 Week 5 road win over the Clemson Tigers (3-2). His stats show no huge gap between him and Manning. The QB completed 18-of-27 passes (66.7 percent, above average) for 227 yards and one TD. 

Manning, meanwhile, has faced two AP Top 25 teams this season: No. 5 Ohio State (4-1) and No. 15 Tennessee (4-1). In those games, the QB completed 37-of-56 passes (66.1 percent) for 396 yards, tossing one TD and two interceptions. One of those interceptions was bad luck, as the ball ricocheted off Coleman into the hands of Buckeyes safety Jaylen McClain.