
2026 is shaping up to be arguably the best season of Denny Hamlin's NASCAR Cup Series career, yet the veteran driver is down on momentum with three races left in the year as he chases a first championship.
After winning four races in the regular season and earning the No. 1 seed, Hamlin hasn't been bad in the seven Chase races. The problem is that he hasn't won in the postseason and hasn't been nearly as consistent as Kyle Larson, though that's not necessarily Hamlin's fault. Late-race contact with Michael McDowell at Darlington and a flat tire at Phoenix didn't help Hamlin's cause.
But neither have the self-inflicted wounds, such as Hamlin's Stage 1 spin at Las Vegas or the speeding penalty he incurred at Phoenix that kept him from getting back on the lead lap. Combine all of those mistakes, and you wind up where Hamlin is going into Talladega: fourth in the standings, 31 points back of leader Kyle Larson.
The championship is still there for the taking. The question is whether or not Hamlin has the killer instinct to take it.
There's no denying that Hamlin, a 64-time winner in NASCAR's top division, a mark good for ninth all time, will one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. There's no denying his talent, his legacy or the fact that he is one of the greatest stock car drivers the world has ever seen.
But the lack of a Cup Series championship on his resume is glaring, as is all the ways he's found through the years to lose them.
Championships aren't always won and lost in a single moment, but there are several dotted throughout Hamlin's close calls that can be pointed to. Like his shortcomings in this year's Chase, some are self-inflicted and others are not.
The 2025 championship was, for all intents and purposes, wrapped up by Hamlin last year. He dominated the championship race at Phoenix, but a late caution for William Byron sent the field down pit road, where Hamlin took four tires to Kyle Larson's two and couldn't get past Larson on the race's final restart.
That heartbreaking defeat was not Hamlin's fault, nor was 2019, when there was too much tape on the grille of his No. 11 Toyota late in the finale at Homestead and his car began overheating.
2010 saw Hamlin spin at Homestead and essentially hand Jimmie Johnson a fifth consecutive title. In 2014, 2020 and 2021, Hamlin just didn't have the pace to contend for the race win and the championship in the season finale.
The final three tracks on the 2026 schedule are all venues Hamlin excels at in Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead. Sure, Talladega is unpredictable, but it's that way for every other driver in the field. Hamlin is one of the best to ever race at Martinsville, and he's been the fastest car in the field at most 1.5-mile tracks this season, which bodes well for his weekend at Homestead.
Say what you will about Hamlin being snake-bitten, but the opportunity for him to win title No. 1 is there for the taking over the next three weeks if he wants it.
For Hamlin, winning a championship would lead to not only the glory of winning a title in one of the top motorsport series in the world, but also the satisfaction gleaned from erasing the narrative that he chokes in the postseason when the lights are the brightest.
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