
Barring two straight wins and a pile of misfortune from Kyle Larson over the final two races of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, there's little hope for Denny Hamlin to win the championship.
After Larson's win and 71-point day at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday, Hamlin, who finished eighth in the YellaWood 500, is now 73 points back of Larson going into Martinsville. Should his deficit be 76 points or more after Martinsville, he will be unable to win the title at Homestead.
"Truthfully, they've [the 5 team] done a lot of things right, a lot of things have really gone right, and we've not done that," Hamlin said on the USA Sports post-race show. "We've got a big 'ol gap. I think as long as he can keep his four tires on it the next two weeks, he'll be champion again."
Hamlin expanded on his championship outlook in a post-race scrum with reporters.
"If you ask me to start the day would I take an eighth, I mean, probably," Hamlin said, per Matt Weaver. "Obviously, the 5's on a massive run at the right time of the year. It's disappointing, but also, our day could've been a s--- ton worse. We didn't get stage points. We tried."
Denny Hamlin, frustrated with the NextGen and not a lot of options to win this Chase https://t.co/Mx2pWaeA5P
— Matt Weaver (@MattWeaverRA) October 25, 2026
Hamlin is good at both Martinsville and Homestead, but so is Larson, and given that so much has to go wrong for the No. 5 team over the next two weeks, Hamlin's frustration and pessimism toward his title hopes are understandable.
Larson's only finish worse than sixth in the Chase came last week at Phoenix, where he finished 34th after a blown tire. Hamlin, meanwhile, has three finishes outside of the top 10 in eight Chase races and no wins, while Larson has won thrice in the postseason.
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