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Pictured: Sophia Smith. Photo by Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/Getty Images

2024 Olympics Soccer Preview: USA vs. Zambia odds, pick, prediction for Thu. 7/25

Originally posted on Action Network
By Ian Nicholas Quillen | Last updated Jul 25, 2024 2:27 AM ET

The United States Women's National Team will look to avenge their poor World Cup showing from a year ago when they begin their Olympic campaign against Zambia on Thursday in group play.

The U.S. were eliminated in the World Cup Round of 16 last year, their worst-ever finish in the event. That set off a generational transition with the hire of new manager Emma Hayes and several major veterans exiting international play.

In Zambia, the U.S. face one of the world’s most improved programs. Zambia finished an all-time best third at the African Cup of Nations in 2022 and took three points its their first World Cup appearance in 2023.

Here is my USA – Zambia pick ahead of their Olympics contest.

USA vs. Zambia Odds

Thursday, July 25, 3 p.m. ET, USA Network

USA Odds	-3000
Zambia Odds	+5000
Draw	+1300
Over / Under	2.5 -136 / +108

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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USA Picks

In hiring Hayes, the USWNT brought in one of the world’s most sought after head coaches and the architect of a Chelsea women’s side that has become the perennial rulers of the English game.

But part of her agreement to take charge of the U.S. was that she wouldn't arrive until the conclusion of Chelsea’s domestic campaign, meaning her first true game on the touchline came last month. While it’s dangerous to take much from friendlies, the U.S. haven't conceded a goal since Hayes’ arrival.

Several major personalities have departed since 2023 — most notably Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe — but this is still a side with plenty of talent.

Rose Lavelle is in the middle of the most productive season of her NWSL career after spending 2023 limited by injuries.

Sophia Smith is third in the league in goals and second in assists, and captain Lindsey Horan has won four consecutive league titles between her final season in Portland and three years at Olympique Lyon in France.

Zambia Picks

In striker Barbra Banda, Zambia has a living legend who is still only entering her prime.

The 24-year-old is already the all-time leading scorer in African Olympic history after completing hat tricks in two of her nation’s group games in the 2020 Olympic tournament. And she’s had the same success in her first NWSL season with the Orlando Pride as she's tied for the league lead with 12 goals in only 12 regular season appearances.

She leads a Copper Queens side that's one of the youngest at the Olympics as they have more players in their teens (two) than in their 30s (one).

However, they are battle tested after a dramatic African qualifying tournament and advanced through two aggregate-goals series by a single goal.

Now comes the task of improving upon their previous global tournament appearances. They took one point from their Olympic debut in 2021 (the 2020 games, delayed by a year), and then three from last year’s World Cup.

USA vs. Zambia

Prediction

Zambia’s history on the world stage is short, but there has been one clear trend: Lots of goals.

Of the Copper Queens’ six group games between their previous Olympic and World Cup appearances, five have seen at least four goals scored. And while Banda and company have real offensive quality, their defense just hasn’t held up at this level, conceding at least four goals in four of those matches.

But this American team — by Hayes’ own admission — is a work in progress and hasn't really shown a penchant for pouring it on the way some previous generations have.

I’m just going to play the total to go over at -136, an implied 57.6% probability. The real probability here is probably 5-to-10 percentage points higher based on Zambia’s track record.