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Arsenal and Aston Villa’s chances of winning the Champions League revealed as supercomputer predicts tournament outcome

Originally posted on HITC | By Darren Looney | Last updated Apr 15, 2025 7:08 AM ET

Champions League action resumes this week with the remaining eight teams looking to book their place in the semi-finals of Europe’s elite competition.

With the quarter-finals having already gotten underway, several teams have put themselves in a very strong position to go all the way after the first legs of the quarter-finals brought up some surprise results.

Arsenal hammered Real Madrid 3-0 courtesy of two impressive Declan Rice free-kicks and will fancy their chances of winning the Champions League this season, especially with Mikel Arteta set to have Kai Havertz back before the season ends.

Aston Villa endured a tough night in Paris last week after being defeated 3-1 by PSG and can expect more of the same at Villa Park on Tuesday night against Luis Enrique’s impressive group of players.

Ahead of the second legs, Arsenal and Aston Villa’s chances of winning the Champions League have been assessed by a supercomputer.

Photo by David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images

Arsenal and Aston Villa’s European chances

Barcelona are considered by many as the best team in the world at present as the Catalan club continues their pursuit of a treble and according to OPTA analysts’ supercomputer, Hansi Flick’s side are the favourites to win their sixth European Cup this season with a percentage chance of 28.2%.

Arsenal fans will be pleased to know that they are the second favourites at 24.5% after their stunning 3-0 win last week, although Real Madrid can never be ruled out.

Having given themselves a comfortable lead over Aston Villa, PSG sit in third with the Ligue 1 champions going on to win their maiden Champions League title in 23.9% of OPTA’s simulations, while Inter Milan are fourth with a percentage chance of 16.7%.

As for Aston Villa themselves, OPTA give Unai Emery’s men a 1% chance of winning the Champions League and only 2.8% chance of reaching the final in Munich.

Villa fans will be happy with their journey in Europe so far and ahead of the second legs this week, there is a lot more pressure on Arsenal.

Champions League or bust for Mikel Arteta

This season has been a disappointment for Arsenal as the Gunners currently sit 13 points behind Liverpool in the Premier League, having also been knocked out of both domestic cup competitions earlier than expected.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1

32 23 7 2 74 31 43 76 2

32 17 12 3 57 27 30 63 3

32 17 6 9 51 38 13 57

However, all this will be forgotten about by Arsenal fans should the North London club lift their first Champions League title this season and it will justify the Gunners’ decision to stick by Mikel Arteta.

The Spaniard has done incredible work in helping Arsenal to compete again at the top of both the English and European games, but the 43-year-old only has an FA Cup to show for his efforts, which came back in 2020.

A Champions League win for Arteta makes the Spaniard an instant Arsenal legend and this season could be the Gunners’ best chance to lift Europe’s elite competition for the first time.

This article first appeared on HITC and was syndicated with permission.

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