Can Leeds United and Burnley survive the EPL?

Congratulations to Leeds and Burnley for their promotion back to the EPL and the huge pay check that comes with it.

Both teams have fully deserved their success. Under Daniel Farke, Leeds have been the most exciting Championship team to watch this season. With 89 goals they are by far the league’s top scorers (the next closest is Middlesborough with 64 goals). 

Conversely - but no less impressively - Burnley (under the management of Scott Parker) have the best defensive record conceding a miserly 15 goals in 44 games (Leeds are 2nd in this metric with 29 goals conceded). There are many ways to skin a cat. Or get promotion to the EPL.

Now comes the harsh reality. In the last two seasons all promoted teams have been relegated. In the 2023/24 season it was Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United. This season Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are the ones to exemplify the massive gap in class (and money) between the Championship and EPL. In most cases those teams have pressed the panic button and fired their manager – and it’s not made an iota of difference.

Daniel Farke and Scott Parker know this. Farke took Norwich up to the EPL in 2018/19. And then took them straight back down. He secured promotion again in the 20/21 campaign, before being fired in September 2021 after overseeing a run of 15 consecutive Premier League losses (a record). 

Scott Parker couldn’t keep Fulham up when appointed as temporary manager in March 2019. But he did succeed in returning Fulham to the EPL the following season via the play-offs. Only to oversee their relegation again in the 20/21 season after which he was fired. Parker then took over at Bournemouth where he guided them to promotion. The next season he was fired after just four games, three of which they lost with an aggregate score of 0-16.

There are two ways of looking at this. The first is that both were treated harshly and deserved to stay. It’s an unrealistic expectation for a promoted club to achieve survival. Clubs that have stuck to their principals and tried to play out from the back have been severely punished for their naivety. Those that have tried to build their success via a defensive mindset risk doing no better – and upsetting the fans along the way with their dour style. It's an impossible job.

The second way of looking at this comes with hindsight. Norwich probably shouldn’t have fired Farke; they have struggled since and will finish midtable in the EFL Championship this season. Post-Parker, Fulham and Bournemouth are flying under the guidance of Marco Silva and Andoni Iraola respectively.

Winning promotion from the Championship and keeping a team in the EPL are two very different jobs. The chances are that it ends badly for the promoted teams. History tells us they will probably fire their managers in the middle of next season, neither of whom have succeeded In the EPL. So perhaps the smart play is to say “Thanks for the promotion; but now you are fired”.