Can the USMNT upset Germany? Breaking down the final World Cup tune-up

Since 2014, though, Germany has struggled at the World Cup. It crashed out in the group stage in 2018 in Russia, then repeated the ignominious feat four years later in Qatar. It hasn't reached the knockout stages since its run 12 years ago.

Can Germany win the World Cup in 2026?

Possibly.

Fomer Bayern Munich manager Julian Nagelsmann took over the team in 2024, bringing a sense of pragmatism. His big innovation is keeping things simple.

In 2014, Germany was stacked with legends who could adapt quickly to complicated tactics; in 2026, it's working with a new generation that needs a little more hand-holding.

“There will be difficult moments, and so it’s important the players have something they can grasp onto,” Nagelsmann said in his first news conference as Germany coach, per The Athletic. “It won’t be as complex as in club football. It’s about giving the players something to identify with.”

As the Cup gets closer, Germany sits just outside the group of top contenders. It's not quite on the same level as, say, Spain, France or Argentina, but it's expected to perform well and make a deep run.

Germany's playing style in World Cup

Nagelsmann is a big fan of a narrow 4-2-3-1 with three interchangeable playmaking No. 10s setting up a lone striker. It's a style that forces most of the play down the middle of the field — making breaks easier for Germany to defend — but allows for plenty of chaos and innovation in attack. 

When Nagelsmann plays this scheme, good things tend to happen; when he forsakes it in the name of experimentation, bad things do. Take Germany's World Cup qualification doubleheader against Slovakia for proof. It used the 4-2-3-1 against it in the first leg and won 6-0, then changed things around in the second and lost 2-0.

Can the USMNT take advantage of that?

Almost certainly. Germany's preference for a narrow central build cedes plenty of wide space to opposition full backs, and the USMNT has some of the most exciting full backs around. Antonee Robinson, Max Arfsten, Sergino Dest and Alex Freeman should be set up for a fun game against Germany. Keep an eye on those four as the match develops.

Do any USMNT players have connections to Germany?

Many do. Midfielder Malik Tillman was born and reared in Germany; Goalkeeper Matt Freese has German citizenship. Defender Chris Richards, midfielders Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie, striker Ricardo Pepi and forward Haji Wright trained in Germany when they were younger. Midfielder Gio Reyna and defender Joe Scally still play in Germany.

Is the USMNT expected to beat Germany?

No, but it wasn't expected to beat Senegal. The USMNT will play Germany in its final World Cup warm-up match Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago.