Champions League semifinal best bets: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich predictions, picks for Wed. 5/8

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Odds

Wednesday, May 8, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Real Madrid

The first half of Real Madrid's performance in Munich was a textbook Madrid performance. Carlo Ancelotti's side attempted to press out of the gate — similar to their approach in the first leg against Manchester City in the quarterfinal. It went quite poorly, as Bayern immediately generated a massive chance in behind through Leroy Sané up the left side. Real Madrid remain a very mediocre pressing side, and Ancelotti adjusted in-match to sit a bit deeper and try to force all of Bayern's attacks through the center of the pitch.

Bayern finished the first half with eight attempts at goal, but none of them except the Sané chance were high quality. Real Madrid had their moment of brilliance – a Toni Kronos pass in behind to Vinicius Junior after he deked Kim Min-jae and Real Madrid generated more xG on one shot than Bayern did on eight.

Both teams to me are more comfortable playing in a mid-block defensive approach and looking to break in transition without countering. Real Madrid were extremely cautious in their second leg at home against RB Leipzig to not get beat in transition against Marco Rose's mid-block and counter tactics and Ancelotti could aim for a repeat of this tactic in this tense Champions League second leg.

Real Madrid's defense has made serious improvements as a whole, and it shouldn't be understated that their defense held Bayern Munich to just 0.8 non-penalty xG in Munich in the first leg despite ceding most of the possession. That bodes well for how they'll defend at home in this second leg.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich gave away two goals because of individual errors from Min-jae, but their defensive outlook in the last match was quite solid. Bayern allowed just two shot attempts from open play with an xG rating higher than 0.05. Almost all of Real Madrid's chances came from low quality areas.

For comparison's sake: The first leg of this matchup ended 2-2 with just 46 penalty area touches combined by the two teams. PSG and Dortmund played out a 1-0 first leg in Dortmund despite 63 penalty area touches. Both of these managers – Thomas Tuchel especially — will be happy to cede possession to the opponent. Bayern held Arsenal to just two shots after taking the lead in the quarterfinal second leg, and Munich went to Arsenal and conceded just 1.0 xG, 13 shots and 28 box touches. They have shown a propensity to limit high quality chances, and the defensive move to play Joshua Kimmich at right back, and top ball winner Konrad Laimer at defensive midfielder, has helped the defensive solidity.

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Prediction

The first leg finished with 3.5 expected goals, but half of that came from two penalties that inflated the perception of how open the match really was. We've seen an explosion of goal scoring in the Premier League this season and even in the business end of the Champions League, but neither of these teams are pressing heavily or taking chances in and out of possession to leave their defenses at risk. Tuchel has dialed back his pressing in Germany, Ancelotti knows Real will get exposed if they press too much and the result is a tight contest with longer possessions and fewer high turnovers.

Similar to the quarterfinal against Man City, Real Madrid played out a cagey first leg that had 4+ goals despite the flow of the game suggested a much more lower event match. And similar to that quarterfinal, the total is lined at three for the second leg for this semifinal. Neither team will want to take the chance to lose the tie. This will play out stylistically closer to a cup final and I'd bet under 3 at -110 as a result.

Pick: Under 3 (-110 or better)