Copa America final: Argentina vs. Colombia odds, picks, predictions for Sun. 7/14

Argentina vs. Colombia Odds, Pick

Sunday, July 14, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Argentina

Argentina has proven one thing over the last two years — it's the best build-up team in the world.

They aren't like Spain or England, because although they try very hard to slow the pace down, they will exploit any opening that an opponent gives them.

That can be in the form of line-breaking passes or even long balls over the top to Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez.

Long balls are the one thing that gives Colombia a lot of problems because of their high line. Although a lot of Argentina's passes are short, they have been incredibly effective, completing 65.3% of long balls this tournament.

It also doesn't matter who you are or how you play — Argentina is going to control the match from start to finish.

Colombia is most likely going to come at them with their aggressive high press, but Argentina has press-resistant players all over the pitch to create a boatload of chances. Throughout this tournament, Argentina is averaging a whopping 1.87 npxG per 90 minutes, which is by far the most in the field.

What doesn't get talked about enough in Argentina's defense. They're the best transition defense in this tournament, allowing the fewest shots per counter-attack. They've only conceded 0.59 npxG per 90 minutes, so it's going to be very difficult for Colombia to create high-quality chances.

Colombia

Colombia survived against Uruguay in the semifinals after going down a man right before halftime.

Their defense has been incredibly impressive throughout this entire tournament. No team has found a way to create over one expected goal against them.

The reason for that is because of how effective they've been with their high pressing to deny teams from playing through the middle of the pitch. They denied Brazil time and again, forcing them into a lot long balls to nothing in their 1-1 draw.

One of the most underrated parts of Colombia's game has been set pieces. Coming into this tournament, they led South American World Cup qualifying in shots per set piece and scored their opening goals against Panama and Uruguay off of corners.

They likely won't have very many high-quality chances from open play against one of the best defenses in the world, so they'll have to take advantage of the set-piece opportunities they get.

Colombia is going to be without Daniel Muñoz at right back after he picked up a red card against Uruguay. That's a really significant loss for them. Being a transition-based team, having a ball-progressing fullback to exploit the wide areas can be so crucial against a team like Argentina.

Muñoz ranks second on the team in progressive passes, third in passes into the final third, second in passes into the penalty area and has scored two goals this tournament.

Argentina vs. Colombia

Prediction

Argentina opened around +145 on the 90-minute line and has been steadily bet down to +110 at most books over the past few days. However, I don't think it's gone far enough.

Colombia has controlled matches out of possession with their high press this entire tournament, but they're not going to be able to do that against Argentina. If they press aggressively, Argentina is going to either play right through them with a lot of short passes or play long balls over the top with a lot of success.

Colombia hasn't lost since the start of World Cup qualifying in late 2023 and has a +0.71 xGD per 90 minutes since then. In that exact same time frame, Argentina has a +1.21 xGD per 90 minutes. The Argentinians are by far a more talented team.

I have Argentina projected at -132 on the 90-minute line, so I really like the value on them at +115.

Pick: Argentina ML (+115 via DraftKings)