Despite Two Losses, Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances Remain High

While the Ottawa Senators didn’t have anything to show on the scoreboard in the opening minutes Thursday at the Canadian Tire Centre versus the highly talented Avalanche, the team registered the game’s first five shots on goal. They outshot Colorado 6-2 at the first television timeout.

But a couple of minutes later, the game flipped decisively in the wrong direction for Senators’ fans. The NHL’s leading point-producer (105 points), Nathan MacKinnon, ripped a shot through Senators goalie Linus Ullmark. Fifty-nine seconds later, Brock Nelson tallied his first marker since being acquired by the Avalanche from the New York Islanders at the trade deadline.

Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Cale Makar’s point shot evaded Ullmark through a screen on a power play to make it 3-0 Colorado. Then Joel Kiviranta sent another blast past Ullmark along the ice to put the contest out of hand after only 20 minutes.

The eventual 5-1 Senators’ loss to the Avalanche was the club’s second this week for the team that was fresh off the throes of an eight-game streak of earning points in each one and winners of six in a row.

The last time the Senators reeled off a long win string, the team lost five straight. The squad won five straight from January 25 to February 3, then dropped five consecutive leading into the 4 Nations break and out prior to their latest run.

Fortunately for the Ottawa Senators this season, they’ve been able to mitigate long winless droughts. Other than their previous five-game swoon, the Senators went 0-4-1 November 14-23 and 0-3-1 January 2-9. These are their other two instances of being winless for more than two games in the 2024-25 campaign.

With this in mind, it’s understandable that Senators fans get a little antsy, especially when the home team is honing in on a playoff berth for the first time since 2017.

However, Brady Tkachuk feels his team remains on the right trajectory.

“There’s definitely a lot of things that we need to work on and improve on. And I think at this point this season, there’s no panic. I mean, of course, it sucks. You never want to lose those big games down here the stretch, but it happens, and I know there will be a really good response from Saturday,” said the Senators captain.

“And there’s a lot of time left to certain points in the games where you capitalize on a chance, and it’s a different type of game. So nothing, still enough about positivity, belief, trust in this group and s**t like this happens, it’s just all about responding and bouncing back.”

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The reality is that while the Senators aren’t home and cooled with a clinching “X” beside their name in the standings, their remaining schedule isn’t quite a murderer’s row of opponents. Only five of the club’s 14 games left to play are against teams currently holding a playoff spot.

Yes, they face the Columbus Blue Jackets on three occasions, who are attempting to climb back into the wild card race. But in reviewing where the Senators sit as they head into Saturday evening’s outing in Newark against the New Jersey Devils, the team is in good standing to return to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

According to Hockey Viz’s Analytical guru Micah McCurdy, the Senators have an 87.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Taking a peek at the Eastern Conference standings, it’s easy to see why the Ottawa Senators chances are so great at this juncture.

Wild Card cut line

Ottawa     68 GP  77 PTS

Montreal 68 GP  72 PTS

NY Islanders 68 GP 72 PTS

NY Rangers  70 GP 72 PTS

Columbus    69 GP  71 PTS

Detroit         68 GP  70 PTS

Using this scenario, if the Senators play .500 hockey (7-7-0) the rest of the way, they’ll finish with 91 points.

The Islanders, who are next in line on the outside looking in, will have to gain 20 points (10-4-0) to knock the Senators down a notch, and that doesn’t take into account how the Canadiens and others fare in their own battles toward claiming a postseason berth.

So to Ottawa Senators fans, as the “Captain” says, “There’s no panic.”