Franco Ibarra could be a long-term piece of Atlanta United's new era

2022, 21 years old 

2023, 22 years old

Two things have stayed constant. Franco Ibarra will never win a Golden Boot or create chances at an elite level. Ibarra will reclaim the ball for you at all costs. Sometimes to his detriment. He's been suspended twice this season for card-related offenses. 

Did you notice the variables, though?

In his first two seasons, Ibarra routinely returned the ball to the other team, seemingly for the sake of granting himself another opportunity to deliver The Perfect Tackle. I'm imagining something where he wins the ball cleanly while also breaking both of the ball carrier's femurs. That's all well and good. Never give up on your dreams.

But it's not conducive to effective soccer. This season, he's taken a massive leap forward in nearly ever possession-based stat. Even when you break it down more granularly, he's become an effective and maybe even above-average connecting force in midfield.

That rapidly improving ability manifested remarkably in Atlanta's 3-3 draw against New England last week. It's worth putting the numbers out there again from our day-after piece on the game. There's a valid argument Ibarra had his best game since coming to Atlanta.

Only Thiago Almada had more touches on the night and Ibarra’s 13 progressive passes tied Almada for the team high. Per FBref, Ibarra finished the night 41/45 on medium-distance passes and 10/11 on long passes.  

Over the last few years, Atlanta has garnered a well-earned reputation: "Possession without purpose."

Ibarra's skillset runs counter to that idea. He won't complete as high a percentage of his passes as Santiago Sosa or Matheus Rossetto. However, he will actively look to get on the ball and immediately usher it onto its intended location in the final third. It doesn't always get there without complication, but at least it will be sent there without the normal delays in midfield that have allowed opposing defenses to settle into place routinely. Ibarra's 92nd percentile mark in passes into the final third per 90 plus the 79th percentile mark in progressive passes per 90 match up well with the eye test in that regard. 

This, of course, is all in addition to the crunching tackles and understanding of the pressing triggers that allowed Atlanta to recover the ball quickly against the Revs. 

"I think he was very good in terms of the immediate pressure and the amount of balls that he regained in the middle of the field with that immediate pressure and pressure from the back," Gonzalo Pineda said earlier this week. "That aggression that he has in him was great. What I liked is he was in good positions to receive the ball in behind the the center forward, whether it's a direct pass or a third-man pass and from their he can progress the ball forward a little bit better. I think that's what I was missing. Better passes into Thiago, into Rossetto, into Giakou. But he was very good, very solid." 

So what gives? How have we reached the point where Ibarra, a bit player for two seasons who underperformed in a valuable U22 spot, is Atlanta's best central midfielder and a starting-caliber performer in MLS? The answer is so simple it's frustrating. 

Good ideas aren't always good ideas 

In August 2022, Atlanta United Technical Director Carlos Bocanegra held a post-secondary transfer window press conference. The Athletic's Felipe Cardenas asked him about a recurring issue at Atlanta United.

On the midfield again, you know, I understand the confidence in Santiago Sosa, just because of his pedigree and the talent but he's a young player. He's had his injuries. Franco Ibarra is a partner there who could be another six and is another really young player still honestly just learning to play the position and in this league. Is that a concern considering the way most of the stronger teams in MLS really do solidify the middle of field with players that are really adept at playing number six position?

Bocanegra immediately opened his answer with, "We see Franco Ibarra as more of an eight on our team." Let's just say that set off some alarm bells among the folks who cover the team. 

Ibarra became a point of discussion on the day of that tweet after a second-straight disastrous performance paired next to Sosa. In the first game, Atlanta lost 4-1 to Philadelphia as Ibarra attempted to cover a massive gap on the right side of Atlanta's 3-4-2-1 formation while Brooks Lennon pushed forward as a wing back. Per Second Spectrum, he covered the least amount of ground among any starter that day. Did I mention Atlanta lost 4-1? 

A few days later, he played alongside Sosa again in a 2-1 loss to Portland. This time Atlanta came out in a 4-3-3. Ibarra got pulled at halftime in favor of Amar Sejdic. If you needed any more proof of concept that Ibarra wasn't going to work out as a No. 8 tasked with playing a more advanced role, you absolutely got it over that two-game stretch. 

Thing is, you won't be surprised to learn that Ibarra doesn't see himself as much of No. 8 either.

"I grew up playing [as a No. 6]. So I can also plays an eight as I did last year. I'm willing to do whatever, the staff asks of me, but as a six I like being in the middle of the field. Always being there to help my teammates to let them know that I'm there to cover for them at all times. So I think I'm just used to it from playing as a kid," Ibarra said in February through a translator. 

Earlier this week, I asked Pineda about Ibarra potentially spending last year playing out of position. His response (and his reaction to the question) felt telling.

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"That's a very interesting question. Because, yeah, when I first got here, I assumed he was an eight. He was in that role. I was told he was an eight. So I wasn't even thinking on another position. Santi [Sosa] was pretty solid in that moment. So I was thinking more of an eight when we need that fierceness, that power. An eight similar to you know, the eights for Liverpool, you know, that are maybe not super technical, but there are guys that are pressing all the time," Pineda said. "So I was thinking when we need that, Ibarra could do it. So I don't think he was completely out of position. But you can see that he's more comfortable in that six role, and now he's playing there, he's more comfortable with that position. So I think he can be both but now, the six role is pretty good for him."

In general, you can probably see what Pineda is selling there. On the surface, I don't think it's a bad idea to take an initial look at a young player like Ibarra and see the potential for him to progress into a effective seek and destroy No. 8. If the scouting department is saying, "We see Franco Ibarra as an eight" and Santiago Sosa has the No. 6 role locked down for the time being, then I don't think it's a bad idea to trust your scouting department. The problem is that to be a seek and destroy No. 8, you have to have the physical skillset to effectively seek. Ibarra has the destroy part down. Mobility limitations remain a key concern for him, though. It is, to be blunt, a failure in some part of the team's overall scouting process to see Ibarra up close and in person for over a year and half and not recognize that his physical skillset and on-ball ability will not translate into an effective, ground covering No. 8. And it almost seems that Ibarra went along with it out of politeness. 

Fortunately for all involved, there's been a correction this year. Like Pineda said, Ibarra seems far more comfortable now. The eye test and the numbers back that up. And his mobility issues are mitigated when he's asked to play as the deepest-lying midfielder in a double pivot. When he's asked to play as a single pivot or the game became too up and down, well...well, sometimes you get a 6-1 loss to Columbus. Hey, if he didn't have limitations, he wouldn't be in MLS. 

He does complete the primary objectives of his position, though. Atlanta has recently had players who perform secondary tasks well, but don't complete the chores at the top of their list. For example, Alan Franco was and is an elite ball-playing center back. However, he struggled defensively. If you have an elite ball-playing center back who can't defend, you just have a bad center back. He didn't complete the primary objectives. 

In Ibarra's case, he's tasked with two main objectives as a No. 6 in Gonzalo Pineda's system: 1. Win the ball back when it enters your part of the field. 2. Progress the ball. He's accomplishing those objectives right now in a way Santiago Sosa simply isn't. All it seems to have taken is putting him in his preferred position.

A long-term piece? 

Ibarra has been around for so long at this point, it's hard to remember that he was just 20 years old when he arrived. He's only 22 now and is signed to a U22 deal with Atlanta through 2025, his age-24 season. U22 deals are valuable because, like a DP, their cap hits are far less than what their actual budget charge would be without their designation as U22s. Instead of the TAM-level budget charge Ibarra would take up in normal circumstances, Ibarra takes up just $200,000 worth of budget charge each year. 

It's plausible right now to envision a world where Ibarra stays in Atlanta beyond that contract. He may have other aspirations of course and things can change on a dime. Heck, all of this may be outdated by the end of the secondary transfer window for all we know. However, Ibarra seems to be falling right into that window of "Good MLS player who doesn't quite have the juice for Europe." 

Again, there are definitely limitations. We've already talked about his lack of mobility. He's also a young player still working on staying steady game-by-game.

"in the big scheme of things with the ups and downs, I think he's having a very good season. I think it has been the disrupted with the injury in New York City, the suspension, the next suspension for the five yellows and then a couple lingering things with his foot. But when he's 100% he's been pretty good," Pineda said. "So yeah, we're working on consistency. Consistency when you're a kid — 20, 22 — you need consistency, consistent performance. He's showing that he's capable of performing at a good level. Can he do that every game? That's the challenge."

If he can continue to progress and find that consistency, though, he becomes by far the most successful U22 signing in Atlanta's short history. He may even be the lone survivor of a potential U22 culling on the way. Remember, if Atlanta wants to bring in a third DP who is not a Young DP like Thiago Almada, then they'll have to get rid of all but one of their U22s. If that's the path they chose, it almost certainly feels like Almada will be the last one standing. If they decide they want to maintain all three U22 spots, it's likely Ibarra will be the last one standing anyway from a group that, so far, has been disappointing. 

If Ibarra can continue to grow, that solves a key issue for Atlanta United. Everything about the roster reshaping to come becomes easier because you now have a critical part of your spine in alignment. That's a big deal for Atlanta as Garth Lagerwey actively works to bring the team's spine up to an MLS Cup-winning standard.

"You know, one of the things that I think you guys have heard me say I really want to spend our money down the spine of the team," Lagerwey told 92.9 The Game after the team announced the sale of Luiz Araujo. "Which is to say center forward, center midfielder, defensive midfielder, center back, goalkeeper. And that was a big expenditure, maybe higher than I'd seen before for a winger, you know, for a wide player. And obviously, if everything had gone perfectly, then, you know, you would have left it as is, you know, not kicked over the sandcastle just for the point of being destructive."

If Ibarra can be The Guy at the six for just $200k of budget charge a year, then Atlanta has what Lagerwey would call an "efficient contract" at a critical point in their spine. It also makes the scouting process for a potential No. 8 even easier. Find a player who can cover ground effectively as a true box-to-box midfielder and you'll likely have a midfield that can finally compete with the league's best: A midfield where both players attributes make each piece of the double pivot better. 

It took a moment for him to get there, but it seems like Ibarra is finally in the right place and thriving. Feels fitting, doesn't it? Now the question is how long he'll be there. And how much he can continue to grow.