Top soccer strikers aren't measured on goals alone. They're also measured on how efficiently and reliably they can deliver them. The goals-per-minute ratio — how many minutes, on average, pass between strikes — is a good way to track a player's scoring prowess.
In the Premier League, Erling Haaland of Manchester City unsurprisingly is the clear winner on this metric. But the man challenging him, Aston Villa's Colombian super-sub Jhon Duran, is unexpected. He's an ex-Major League Soccer striker who went to England without much fanfare and developed into a top player.
103 - Jhon Durán has scored six Premier League goals from just 616 minutes played in the competition, an average of one every 103 minutes; among players to have scored 5+ Premier League goals, only Erling Haaland (85) averages a better minutes to goals rate. Impact. pic.twitter.com/FvgQ389zhv
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 17, 2024
Thanks to his efficient goal-scoring, Duran is a hot commodity in the Premier League.
Villa reportedly turned down 40 offers for him over the summer because it believed his services were worth more than anything the market could provide in return. Villa's logic appears to have paid off, as Duran has scored three goals in the Premier League this season, all game-deciders.
The winner, in all its glory ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/L6fafOM6Cc
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) September 14, 2024
Duran is only 20, but incredibly, his international soccer story didn't start with Aston Villa. It started in the United States.
Major League Soccer scout Sebastien Pelzer discovered Duran in Colombia when he was just 16 and quickly signed him to the Chicago Fire in 2021. Duran stayed with Chicago for nearly three years, bouncing between its youth and senior teams.
"From the moment I signed with the Chicago Fire, everyone welcomed me with open arms," Duran said, per MLS.com. "The Fire and the city of Chicago will always have a special place in my heart."
So nice he did it twice.
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) July 14, 2022
Durán brace for the Fire! pic.twitter.com/TDz7t3VzPp
Duran looked good but not great during his MLS journey, and when Aston Villa offered Chicago $22 million—a reported club record—for his services, the team quickly accepted. After the deal, Duran exploded into a world-class player while Chicago struggled to stay competitive.
In many ways, the deal celebrates and indicts Chicago's player development pipeline.
It's incredible that Chicago found Duran toiling for a small club on the outskirts of Medellin. That speaks to an organized, committed scouting department with an eye on the future. But it's telling that Duran blossomed only after leaving Chicago.
The idea that Duran — one of the world's more heralded strikers — wasn't even considered a senior-team regular in Chicago is absurd, and it unravels all the good work the team did to locate, sell and sign Duran in the first place.
It seems that Duran stood out to Chicago when he was one of millions of potential signings, but he failed to pop once he was one of a few dozen within the squad's ranks. That's a problem for Duran, who lost a few solid years of first-team action while flitting between the youth and senior ranks, but it's also a problem for Chicago.
Your Goal of the Month for August, brought to you by Jhon Durán pic.twitter.com/kCOiZxPYbS
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) September 9, 2024
Heading into Wednesday's home game versus Nashville, Chicago is 13th in MLS's Eastern Conference, well outside of the playoff positions and unlikely to qualify for the postseason. Its top scorer, Belgium's Hugo Cuypers, scores one goal every 2.7 games in MLS this season. Duran, thriving in the Premier League, is racking up one goal every 1.1.
That club-record $20 million must have felt great for Chicago in 2023, but if it had managed to hang on to Duran — and develop him the way Villa is — it could have had multiples of that figure and a decent shot at an MLS playoff run.
MLS player scouting and development have come a long way, but Chicago's failure to develop Duran proves it still has a long way to go.
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