Messi in Miami: How to bet on the star's future performance in MLS

It’s too early to say for sure. But there are certainly areas in which Messi’s performance is predictable — and that means there are areas where we can make smart bets about what’s to come.

Free kicks

Messi is something of a specialist when it comes to free kicks (dead-ball goal attempts following a foul by the other team) — just look at his game-winning goal for Miami against Cruz Azul. Because they happen outside of traditional play, free kicks are excellent ways for players to show their skill: there’s no real interference from the opposing team, just a one-off opportunity to bend the ball into the net.

MLS teams take significantly fewer free kicks than their European counterparts. LAFC, the top free kick team in the league, has put 21 on target in MLS this season. By contrast, PSG, Messi’s former club and the top free kick team in France’s Ligue 1, managed 28 in 2022-23 in a similar time frame. And LAFC are the best in MLS; Messi’s Inter Miami, woeful as they’ve been so far this season, have only managed an utterly depressing 6. That’s a steep drop-off from the 28 that Messi is used to.

DRAFT KINGS PROMO CODE: BOOST MESSI TO 30-1 TO SCORE VS. ATLANTA UNITED

Free kicks, then, represent the biggest opportunity for a player like Messi in MLS. He can do two vital things to improve Inter Miami’s free kick statistics: first, he can draw fouls in places where kicks are likely to convert into goals, and second, he can manage that conversion himself. When considering Messi-specific bets in his entry season in MLS, it would be smart to bet not just on Messi scoring, but specifically (if possible) on Messi scoring from free kick attempts. He’s all teed up to become one of the best in MLS at it — there simply isn’t any competition.

Additionally, given that Messi will leverage free kicks to lift Miami’s goalscoring stats, we can also expect the team’s goal difference to improve. It’s currently sitting at a dismal -14; it should move closer to zero by the time the season wraps up.

Goals conceded 

Poor, sad Inter Miami has conceded 36 goals this season — only fellow strugglers Charlotte and the LA Galaxy have conceded more. This isn’t entirely Miami’s fault, given that the team’s defense got decimated by injuries in the spring, but it is an unavoidable fact. It’s wonderful that Messi has joined to score goals. But Messi is not a defender, and Messi can do little to keep Miami from conceding.

OddsChecker's Lionel Messi Odds: How to bet on Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United

Tonight, Lionel Messi is set to start for the first time in an Inter Miami jersey, and he will look to build on his first goal with a couple more against Atlanta United. Put the great info in this story to work with these great offers.

When betting on Inter Miami this season, then, don’t get blinded by Messi’s goalscoring greatness when picking potential scores. This is a team that has managed just six clean sheets in 29 attempts in 2023. The safe money — the smart money — is on betting that both Inter Miami and its opposition will score. The odds are starting to reflect this, so don’t be afraid to take advantage of any ‘both to score’ opportunities that present themselves for Messi’s Miami.

Assists, feeding into goals per 90 minutes

Throughout this MLS season Inter Miami has averaged just one goal per 90 minutes of play — expected, given their poor standing in the Eastern Conference, but still pretty terrible. Messi, luckily,  has the unique ability to increase this figure in a short amount of time.

Miami's problem isn't a lack of goal scorers; on the contrary, they've got stellar strikers in Josef Martinez and Leonardo Campana. What Miami lacks is a connecting player to drive in assists for these forwards. While Messi isn't quite the assist machine he used to be, he still managed 16 of them last season in Ligue 1 — the same number as teammates Neymar and Mbappé combined.

Expect Messi to sink a little deeper at Inter Miami to create chances for players like Martinez and Campana — and keep an eye on Messi's odds for assists. He's likely to excel here, and in doing so he'll lift Inter Miami's goals per 90 significantly.

DRAFT KINGS PROMO CODE: BOOST MESSI TO 30-1 TO SCORE VS. ATLANTA UNITED