NWSL betting overview: Analysis for every team in America’s premier women’s soccer league

Kansas City Current

The Current finished last season second-bottom of the table, but there was reason to be intrigued coming into 2024. For one, they built themselves a fortress in the offseason, a 11,500-seat venue, the first built strictly for an NWSL team. The good karma seems to be working, with the Current solely atop the table on 10 points.

Another reason to not be too surprised at the early turnaround is that the city also brought back Vlatko Andonovski to the Kansas City sidelines. He managed the previous iteration of this franchise from 2013-2017, when they were FC Kansas City. He won two titles in his time with FC Kansas City, and is off to a great start in 2024.

There’s also the fact that this team was in the 2022 title match, and while they did indeed drop off in the actual table the next year, they were dealt a brutal injury hand, as well as their share of bad luck on the pitch, as they were actually right around mid-table in xG (+0.4 xGD in 2023).

As such, I’m willing to adjust the pre-season prior of them being a mid-table side and will actually be looking to back them if the market doesn’t respect them enough.

However, the best way to bet the Current remains the over. Last season the Current trailed only the porous defense in Chicago (28 goals for; 50 goals against), and the high-flying Thorns (42 goals for; 32 goals against). This season, that open Current attack has continued, with their 12 goals easily pacing the league (North Carolina is second with nine, no one else above seven), and their eight goals allowed trailing only Portland and Houston. Their 13.1 combined xG and xGA top the league.

Both teams have scored in all four of their games, and they had gone over the mostly standard 2.5 total in each game until a 1-1 draw with Gotham this past weekend. The xG suggests both the goals for and against are due for a bit of regression, but that’s natural with totals as extreme as they’ve had so far. Their total xG per game is still well over 3.0.

Betting advice: Overs; Both Teams to Score; Backing K.C. in certain situations

North Carolina Courage

It's no surprise seeing the Courage near the top of the table, as the franchise has established itself as a consistent contender year after year. In fact, in terms of xG, they have been the best side in the league so far this season, and that entirely matches the eye test.

They have wins over Gotham FC and the Portland Thorns already, two teams that were supposed to be in their top tier heading into the season (along with a smackdown of the Houston Dash, who definitively were not). Their lone loss came on the road in Utah in a game in which they outscored the Royals 2.8-0.3 by xG but lost 2-1 on the scoreboard that matters.

The core of this team is incredibly solid, and Ashley Sanchez is having an outstanding start to her Courage career, with a goal and two assists through the Courage’s first four matches.

Sadly, the market knows how strong the Courage are, so while I certainly wouldn’t recommend fading them, bettors have to look for spots to find real value.

The same can be said from a futures perspective. Books have the Courage as the consensus shortest odds to lift the Cup at the end of the NWSL postseason. I would also make them current favorites, but not by any sort of gap that provides value towards betting into the Courage futures market right now.

One thing to keep an eye on is their home/road splits. They are 3-0-0 at home, compared to 0-0-1 on the road, and while that road loss was quite unlucky as we showed above, they were notably better at home last season as well, finishing 5-5-1 at home compared to 4-1-6 on the road. The road losses are notable, so keep an eye out for an undervalued team hosting the Courage.

That being said, the defense has been comically strong. They’ve allowed a total of nine shots on target over four games—for reference, the Dash allowed nine shots on target in their week two match against Louisville. Poor offenses (like the Royals, Reign or Red Stars) coming to North Carolina and getting shutout is a good look.

Betting advice: Rely on them to shutout non-elite offenses at home

Washington Spirit

This is my team. Not in fandom, but I am all over the Spirit from a betting perspective. They came into the season incredibly undervalued, and are still not being given the respect they deserve, especially in the futures market.

From a day-to-day perspective, they sit third in the table, but second by xG, with three straight wins on the heels of a loss to the Seattle Reign in their season opener. Granted those three wins have come against mid-to-poor teams, and they have faced the easiest schedule in the league so far, but there’s still a lot to like here.

Trinity Rodman is one of the young megastars of the league, and she is pacing the league in big chances created already. On that note, Oulemata Sarr is leading the league in big chances missed, and given her goal scoring prowess in France, I’ll be looking at her goal scoring props if they pop, and she should regress positively getting to play next to Rodman.

It’s the futures market where I am most intrigued by the Spirit, however. Despite the strong start, the Spirit are still +1800 to win the title at ESPNBet. That number is a bit low for the team as is, but there’s a hidden element here that the books seem to be overlooking. FC Barcelona manager, Jonatan Giraldez, will be taking over for Adrian Gonzalez, who is currently acting as the interim head coach. If the Spirit can even tread water until Giraldez arrives, they have an incredible ceiling with that manager and this squad.

I’m going to sprinkle this +1800 for now, but also keep an eye on it in months to come, because I’ll want to see how quickly things can come together under Giraldez on the fly. I also know owner Michele Kang will be active in making sure this team has everything in place to be a legitimate contender for now as well as in the future.

Betting advice: Good time to buy in individual games and in the futures market

Chicago Red Stars

So far, we’ve been mostly high on teams. Here’s the flip. The Red Stars sit fourth in the table, but it is a very fraudulent fourth.

For one, they are coming off a dead-last finish in 2023, and while that is not always entirely damning from year-to-year in the NWSL (the Current were only one spot above them!) in this case it’s one red flag of many. They were comically worse than every team in the league last season, and while new ownership came in in the offseason, the improvement from bottom of the table to top four is not going to last.

In fact, they are bottom four in the table by xG even now, and while we don’t want to be slaves to xG, when the prior is also that this team should be a bottom half of the table team, and it passes the eye test that they’ve gotten lucky in several of their matches this season, all signs are go to fade the Red Stars in upcoming weeks.

The shine is already starting to come off a bit, with a draw and then a loss in their last two matches, after starting the campaign with a pair of semi-fluky victories.

The market seems to be adjusting already, though, with Angel City coming in as road favorites last week, despite a much lower spot in the table. This weekend will be an interesting test again, as they travel to Seattle to take on the Reign. Seattle are basically the inverse of Chicago, a team who came in with strong priors but who has struggled in the actual table but appears due for positive regression. I would make Seattle notable favorites, so this weekend will tell us if we’re going to be able to keep fading Chicago, or if the market has caught up for now.

Betting advice: Potentially GREAT team to fade if the market is slow to adjust

Orlando Pride

Orlando was a team I was eyeing from a futures perspective coming into the season, but I wanted to see how they started the season. This starting 11 has about as much talent as you’ll find in the league, but they’ve struggled with consistency at times and they were bringing in a fair amount of new players.

So far, I’ve been impressed, with those bad losses from last season seemingly gone for now and Marta still looking every bit the star she long has been. The big news, though, is that Barbra Banda, the Pride’s huge offseason signing, has just joined the club after visa issues delayed her arrival. Orlando being as successful as they have been without her this season suggests good things for their future, but I want to see how she adjusts to the lineup, and we don’t even have a timetable for her debut just yet. But make sure to keep an eye on her return, as there could be value on the Pride when it does happen.

Betting advice: Continue to see how chemistry develops

Bay FC

This start to 2024 can only be considered a success for the expansion team under Albertin Montoya. They have wins over their natural rivals to the south, Angel City, as well as to the north, with their most recent win over Seattle Reign.

However, the long-term sustainability of Bay FC—at least for this season — is fair to wonder about. They have had the fourth-worst defense both in terms of goals allowed and also xGA, which is worrying for a team that was built around a defensive identity. I currently have them power rated 12th, a far cry from their sixth-place standing right now.

The books have actually liked Bay FC from the start, and I have found myself going against them pretty much every week. They might be the best team in the market to fade right now.

Betting advice: Fade, fade, fade

NJ/NY Gotham FC

Superteams take a minute to gel—we all know that. And we’re seeing a bit of it here, as Gotham haven't been bad by any stretch, but between a 1-1-1 record so far, and a loss in the Challenge Cup to start the season, it hasn’t been the Raining Hell on Earth start that the roster seems capable of.

This roster has Crystal Dunn, Rose Lavelle, Kelly O’Hara, Lynn Williams, Tierna Davidson, Midge Purce and Emily Sonnett, just to name some of the most recognizable names.

However, several of those players are currently injured or returning from injury, with Williams, Purce and O’Hara all having played under a full game’s worth of minutes so far, and Dunn only a bit ahead of them. Gotham have also faced the second-toughest schedule so far, and they have played only three games compared to the four most other teams have as it relates to their position in the table (tied for seventh).

I still have them power-rated second in the entire league, trailing only North Carolina, and by season’s end I could see those two flipping. Gotham FC at +1000 were my preseason best bet, and that number is gone for now.

That being said, I actually think there could be value on this team as they return more and more of their superteam to the actual pitch, and I may well be looking for alt spreads in the right spots against teams that just truly can’t compete with the talent of Gotham FC.

Betting advice: If their title odds ever get to +1000 again, it’s a likely look, but betting them on moneylines and alt spreads as they assemble their full roster is my current guidance

San Diego Wave

The team that defeated Gotham in the Challenge Cup, San Diego, has started similarly quiet. It's not that they’ve been bad by any stretch, but the story is almost exactly the same. Squad loaded with stars, has one win, one loss and one draw so far, with a goal differential and xGD at basically exactly +0.0.

And similar to Gotham, I am not particularly worried, and I think they’ll continue to ramp up throughout the season.

However, I am not nearly as high on their ceiling, and I don’t think they carry the late-season blowout potential that Gotham have, so I’m mostly set on a team that is due for a bit of positive regression, but that the market has priced as such.

Betting advice: N/A

Racing Louisville

Louisville sit in the exact middle of the table, have drawn all four matches and have played an average strength of schedule. They’d appear to be very boring on the surface.

But I’m intrigued by this team. This is their fourth season in existence, and they have finished exactly ninth each season. I’m going to say they finish better than ninth this season, and that’s even with two additional teams in the league!

Taylor Kornieck has been particularly impressive from her spot in the defensive midfield. She was a bit overlooked in her role for San Diego, but she’s been an excellent player in the NWSL for a while, and her impact in Louisville has been impressive already.

I’ve found them to be pretty consistently undervalued in the market, and while they haven’t cashed any moneylines with their four draws, they’ve been very strong on the spread, as they have been dogs in three of their four matches.

Betting advice: I like them on spreads, and if playoff odds get added to books at some point they will likely hold value to make the expanded postseason

Angel City

Ironically, I could have almost paired Louisville and Angel City based on their play this season, because their profiles look eerily similar.

Of course, despite joining the league a year after Racing Louisville, Angel City FC have a far flashier name. That’s what happens when your ownership group includes names like Mia Hamm, Natalie Portman, Eva Longoria and Serena Williams (among MANY others).

That helps explain why Angel City came into the season as a projected top four team, despite the profile of a mostly mid-table team by my personal projections.

As such, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see that my approach to Angel City is basically the inverse to Louisville. I’ve been fading them, and will continue to as long as the market demands it.

Betting advice: Fade

Houston Dash

For my money, Houston are the worst team in the league. They have one team competing with them who we’ll get to in a bit, but the Dash are pretty rough.

That being said, they managed a draw against Lousiville and a win over Bay FC, which has me 2-2 in fading them. Last week was particularly egregious, with the Dash being priced as about even with the Washington Spirit, and followers of mine on Twitter will know that was an instant best bet for me.

I think fading the Dash will still have legs for a little bit thanks to those somewhat lucky four points they put up already this season. The defense is particularly atrocious for Houston, so I’ve been hitting alt spreads and opposing team totals, which is a recommended path forward, as well.

Betting advice: Fade to oblivion, especially their defense

Seattle Reign FC

It’s quite rare to see Seattle this far down the table, and I don’t expect it to last. The Reign have lost three straight, including a pair of losses to teams I have power-rated outside the postseason (Red Stars and Bay FC), but for the season as a whole they still have a positive xGD.

That being said, I’m not running to bet them just yet. The defense still looks solid, but the offense has some real question marks in terms of getting the ball in the back of the net.

As such, it’s probably unsurprising that the way I’ll be betting Seattle is on their unders. Even though they are just 2-2 on the over/under, by xG+xGA, no team is stingier. And it makes sense for a team with as much continuity as Seattle has to not be leaking goals.

Betting advice: Unders; long-term expected rise in standings, but I'm not rushing to bet them this second

Utah Royals

Here’s the team giving Houston a run for their money. In all fairness, it’s this version of the team’s first season in the NWSL (they were around from 2018-2020 but the franchise turned into the Kansas City Current before the 2021 season).

Utah have the worst combination of advanced stats, surface stats and preseason priors, which is a recipe for disaster. Sadly, the market knows this, so they are less fun to fade than the Dash.

Easily the funniest part of the Royals season is the fact that their lone result of the season is a *win* over the best team in the league, the Courage. Ain’t footy funny?

Betting advice: Mostly avoid in general

Portland Thorns

The most surprising location for a name in the table is definitely Portland rock bottom of the table. The three-time champions and arguably marquee franchise in the league are sitting on one ([) point through four matches in 2024.

Portland came into the season as a co-favorite with North Carolina in the betting market to win the title, so it’s not shocking that they’ve moved head coach Mike Norris into a different role this week. Norris will remain with the club but in a different role, and Rob Gale has been named as the interim head coach, moving up from assistant.

This is just the latest in a long string of moves since the team was sold last year due to the poor handling of long-term employee. One has to wonder if this transition is starting to wear on the players—a massive distraction that also led to them slipping towards the end of 2023.

What’s interesting about Portand’s slow start, though, is that xG says they’ve just been insanely unlucky. If you sort the table by xG/90, they are actually fifth in the table — an alternate universe in which Norris is almost certainly still on the sidelines.

The biggest issue has been the goalkeeping, as they have allowed 10 goals on just 4.7 xGA. That will happen when you let in literally half of the shots you’ve faced, as has been the case for Shelby Hogan and the Thorns. The good news is it can’t continue to be this bad in net, but the bad news is that this was indeed the weak spot for the team coming into the season. The Thorns gave up the most goals above expected last season as well, and that was with Bella Bixby mostly in goal, so there may be a deeper underlying issue here.

That reason for concern, along with the coaching change, has me hesitant to hop fully on board the positive regression train for Portland, especially because it’s only been four weeks of struggle, and the market still sees Portland as at least a solid team as a result.

Betting advice: See how things are under the new interim coach before looking to them for potential positive regression