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Opta predicts Arsenal’s chance of winning the Champions League

Originally posted on Just Arsenal | Last updated Feb 28, 2026 6:00 PM ET

Opta has given Arsenal the strongest probability of winning the Champions League this season following the completion of the knockout stage draw. The projection has intensified belief that the Gunners could finally secure Europe’s most prestigious club prize.

Arsenal are set to face Bayer Leverkusen in their next fixture, and should they progress from that tie, they will meet either Sporting Club or Bodo Glimt in the quarter-final. On paper, it represents a favourable route, increasing optimism around their prospects of reaching the latter stages of the competition.

A Favourable Path on Paper

While numerous elite clubs remain in contention, Arsenal have avoided match-ups with Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid until a potential final. That perceived advantage has strengthened the belief within the club that this could be their moment to claim the title.

The squad has shown consistency and confidence throughout the campaign, yet they are comparatively less experienced in lifting the trophy than several sides they might encounter if they advance to the final. Managing expectation and maintaining composure will therefore be crucial as the stakes rise.

Opta’s Supercomputer Prediction

According to Opta, their supercomputer assigns Arsenal a 43.06 per cent chance of winning the competition, placing them ahead of every other remaining side. The statistical model reflects both their position in the draw and their recent performances.

Bayern Munich are considered the next most likely winner, with the German club given a 14.28 per cent probability of lifting the trophy. The significant gap between the two percentages highlights the scale of confidence in Arsenal’s position.

Mikel Arteta will be eager to translate those projections into tangible success. While data can indicate likelihood, progress will ultimately depend on performances across two-legged ties against highly capable opponents. Arsenal’s opportunity is clear, but converting promise into silverware will require discipline, focus and resilience in the decisive weeks ahead.

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This article first appeared on Just Arsenal and was syndicated with permission.

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