Opta: Serie A ‘99.8%’ sure to have five Champions League spots – six also within reach

Serie A will likely have five spots in the 2024-25 edition of the Champions League thanks to the performances in European competitions this season. According to a report, it’s now more or less certain that a fifth spot will be awarded to the Italian federation. 

As per the new Champions League formation, which we have done a deep dive into, the two top federations from the previous seasons will get an extra spot for the ‘League Phase’. The latter is known as the group stage in the current format, and so in Italy’s case, it means five teams would qualify.

According to a prediction carried out by Opta, as cited by Corriere dello Sport, Italy has a 99.8% chance of getting one of the two extra spots with 18,428 coefficient points so far this season. Germany (16,785) and England (16,750) are currently second and third, with a 41.8% respectively 57.8% chance to clinch the final extra spot.

Italy still has 4/7 teams left in the European competitions, namely Atalanta, Fiorentina, Milan and Roma. Even though one of the latter two will be knocked out, it also means that Italy for sure will have a team in the Europa League semi-finals.

Another interesting thing to note is that Italy could actually have six slots for the Champions League next season. Should one of Roma and Atalanta finish outside the top four in the league, but win the Europa League, then that would be a reality.