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Seamus Coleman of Everton. (Photo by Richard Callis / SPP/Sipa USA)

Premier League best bets: Everton has the edge on Monday 4/15

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 4/10/24

Welcome to Matchday 33 of the Premier League season. After Man City and Arsenal's 'biggest game of the year' fizzled out into a predictable draw and Liverpool and Man United's date with destiny did the same, it's time to start looking beyond the title contenders for our Best Bets of the Week. Because seriously: in their six games against one another Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool drew four times. Four! Arsenal is the only team in the title race this season that managed a win against its direct competitors. We're rooting for them to take it all by default.

There's so much more drama to dig into in the Premier League, though, from the battle for fourth (we'll get there tomorrow) to the Conference League dogfight. But the most interesting storylines this weekend come at the bottom of the table.

With 16 and 19 points respectively, we can say with some certainty that 20th-placed Sheffield United and 19th-placed Burnley will be relegated at the end of the season. But that leaves the dreaded 18th place open for one more unlikely team. Will it go to Luton Town, the recently-promoted side with a so-bad-it's-amazing stadium who defied the odds to push top teams to their breaking point? Will it go to Nottingham Forest, the lovable team featuring two American stalwarts in Matt Turner and Gio Reyna? Or will it go to Everton, the storied Liverpool-based club whose financial fair play points deductions have pushed it closer and closer to the drop every week?

This weekend offers up crucial tests for all three teams and may wind up giving them some much-needed clarity. But where are the best bets hiding? We think they're here:

Chelsea vs. Everton, Monday, April 15, 3 p.m. ET — Consider these two the unstoppable force and immovable object of Premier League chaos: they've been falling apart since Matchday 1 and show no signs of pulling themselves together. Their problems are financial more than tactical, and in many ways Everton represents the Ghost of Premier League Future for Chelsea. All of those points deductions that Everton received this year could well be coming Chelsea's way in 2025 as owner Todd Boehly reckons with his ill-advised spending over the past few seasons.

Chelsea may be higher in the table at the moment, but it's Everton with the edge as the teams prepare to battle. Everton won the return fixture 2-0 and has played its best soccer immediately after receiving points deductions from the FA. With an additional two points removed from its total last week, you've got to expect Everton to be on fire as it squares up to Chelsea. We're backing an Everton win or draw at +115.

Manchester City vs. Luton Town, Saturday, April 13, 10 a.m. ET — On paper, this match is no contest: City should win it and the -1000 odds for their victory agree. But Luton has a better-than-expected record against top sides this season. It put three goals past Arsenal and two past Liverpool on aggregate in the league and even scored twice against this City side in the FA Cup back in February. Those goals haven't always translated to wins, but they point to a real sense of spirit within the Hatters lineup on big game days like this.

Surely, you may be thinking, a sense of spirit won't be enough to get them past City. You're probably right. But after a rough 3-3 draw against Real Madrid in the Champions League this week, City will be looking to rest a few key players. Chief among them is defensive midfielder Rodri, who has performed poorly for City in his past few games and seems to be hinting and needing to sit out the Luton game. If he does, things get interesting: City is undefeated with Rodri in the starting lineup and winless with him out of it.

With that in mind, why wouldn't you consider popping a cheeky bet on Luton to win or draw at +600? You know you want to.

Nottingham Forest vs. Wolves, Saturday, April 13, 10 a.m. ET — Of all the teams battling to avoid the drop, we're most worried about poor Forest. Not because it's in the spot now — that'd be Luton — but because it can't seem to build up the momentum and spirit it needs to grind out results against lower-table teams. Forest should be more than capable of beating an inconsistent team like Wolves, but Forest failed to do so in the return leg back in December. It's struggled to find its best lineup this year and its coaching changes have only exacerbated the problem.

Wolves are no great shakes this year, but we're backing them to beat Forest at home at +240. We've got our eyes on Brazilian Matheus Cunha as an anytime goalscorer at +220; he's just returned from injury, is hungry to regain his form and scored on Forest last time these two teams met.

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