Premier League betting: Man United vs. Arsenal predictions, picks for Sun. 5/12

Man United vs Arsenal Odds

Sunday, May 12, 11:30 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Man United

The post-Sir Alex Ferguson era has brought quite a few underwhelming seasons to the red side of Manchester, but this campaign is shaping up to be the worst of them all. After a promising first season in charge for Erik ten Hag, where United finished third and won the Carabao Cup, the wheels have completely fallen off. There's been so many incidents and injuries — a lot of which the manager is to blame — it would be impossible to list them all here, and on top of that, the game model ten Hag has implemented is riddled with flaws, which hasn't been helped by subpar recruitment and squad management.

In their last fixture, the Red Devils were torn apart 4-0 by Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Yes, they had zero fit center backs — Johnny Evans failed the fitness test and still played 90 minutes — but there were problems all over the pitch, not just in the heart of their defense. Lisandro Martinez, Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes were all back in training this week, and it would be a surprise if they didn't feature on Sunday because ten Hag has no qualms with rushing his players back from injury.

If there's going to be one saving grace for United in this fixture, it's their history – especially under ten Hag – of finding successful results against "big" teams at Old Trafford. They pulled out wins against Arsenal and Liverpool in this stadium last season, and they knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup here this season as well. The reason for that success are pretty simple. The only thing the Red Devils are moderately competent at is attacking transitions, and they only get a lot of those against teams that play on the front foot against them.

Arsenal

As mentioned previously, this is more or less a must-win game for Mikel Arteta and co., which doesn't bode well given Arsenal have only won at Old Trafford twice since 2006. One of those wins was an FA Cup tie, and the other was during the pandemic with no fans in the stadium. Last season's meeting here was one of their best chances to improve that record, but United were ruthless on the counter-attack, and the Gunners couldn't convert their dominance into a positive result.

Arsenal enter this fixture on as good of form as anyone in the league — well, besides Manchester City — having won their last four matches, which include derby triumphs over Tottenham and Chelsea. Additionally, they're about as healthy as anyone, although Arteta mentioned some doubts with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Bukayo Saka that will have to be resolved before the match. Missing either or both would be a blow to the Gunners' chances, but they do have the squad depth to compensate for those potential losses to an extent.

The North London club usually looks to dominate territory with a suffocating high press and counter-press, but they have shown a willingness to be a little less aggressive in recent away matches, particularly in their trips to the Etihad and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In both of those contests, they used their mid/deep block as a platform, and whatever chances they were able to generate in transitions and from set pieces, they were happy with. Against Tottenham, that got them the three points, and against City they kept a clean sheet, so it's possible they could go with more of the same here.

Man United vs Arsenal

Prediction

I'll start by saying this: There isn't anything Manchester United do, besides maybe generating transitions from their deep block, better than Arsenal. There's a reason there's a 30-point gap between these two sides in the table — the gulf in player quality, tactics and management is sizable.

However, the betting markets have simply gotten out of hand. As I was watching United get trounced by Palace on Monday, I kept monitoring the lines on this game, and they must have shifted by 30 or 40 cents in those two hours. The Red Devils opened at +350 on the moneyline, and they are now below +600 at almost every book. While I think it's unlikely they somehow win this game, the probability of that happening is definitely much greater than 13%.

This is a Manchester United outfit that played Arsenal pretty tight in the reverse fixture and likely felt they deserved to win that game. They have the quality, especially if Rashford and Fernandes are in the team from the first whistle, to hurt their opponents in transition, and while they're going to surrender a boatload of chances at the other end — like usual — there's always the chance the result of this one falls in their favor. Thus, I like the value on United's moneyline at +650, even if I expect this fixture to go in the opposite direction.

Pick: Manchester United ML (+650)