Premier League odds, predictions, picks: Best bets for Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest for 4/7

Premier League Odds & Predictions

Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest

Sunday, April 7, 11:30 a.m. ET, USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Nottingham Forest picked up three critical points at home against Fulham in the midweek, and they’ll look to create more distance between themselves and the relegation places by sneaking a result at Spurs on Sunday. The Trees have a positive expected goal difference since Nuno Espirito Santo became manager, and they’ve done that by improving their defensive metrics.

Forest is conceding just 1.27 xGA per match since Espirito Santo took over as manager, and they’re playing some of the lowest event matches in the entire league. The attack has struggled to consistently create chances, but playing a defense as open as Tottenham structurally will inevitably give them a handful of looks in transition.

The biggest issue Forest has had this year is defensive set pieces and shot stopping. Matz Sels has average shot stopping numbers since moving to the club from Strasbourg in January and they’ve run badly from set pieces, conceding 18 goals from about 11 xGA.
We saw West Ham have success defending Tottenham by defending very deep and being extremely passive out of possession. Spurs created just 1.2 xG and settled for a 1-1 draw. I think Tottenham’s attack has benefitted a bit from just how open the league is this year, and a staunch low block can really slow them down. It wasn’t that long ago Forest was lined +1.5 on the spread at Liverpool.

Now, they’re +1.5 at Spurs, who are far from elite in the Premier League.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-121 via BetRivers)

Luton Town vs. Bournemouth

Saturday, April 6, 10 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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Cunningham: In previous matches, Luton had been more aggressive out of possession, man marking all over the pitch and trying to cause a lot of high turnovers. What that led to was some pretty crazy matches, like the last one they played against Bournemouth.

With all of their out of possession issues, Luton Town have been dangerous on the break and on set pieces. In the previous meeting with Bournemouth, they scored all three of their goals in transition off of counter attacks. Luton create most of their chances via crosses and scored twice against Bournemouth off of them because Bournemouth have been very average at defending them this season.

Even though the previous meeting between these two ended 4-3, Bournemouth were the better side at the end of the match. The Cherries ended up taking 24 shots, creating 2.3 expected goals and had 37 touches in Luton Town's penalty area.

The problem that Luton Town ran into was when they went ahead three goals they stopped playing aggressively out of possession and sat in a passive low block, which gave Bournemouth time and space on the ball. What really is bad for Luton Town is when they fall behind because then they have to play super aggressively, which will leave space for Bournemouth in transition to destroy them.

I have 4.16 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+126 via FanDuel)

Newcastle vs. Fulham

Saturday, April 6, 10 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Marco Silva has changed them more towards where the rest of the Premier League is going and has them pressing higher up the pitch to try and disrupt the opponent's build up play.

Since the start of 2024, Fulham's matches are averaging 3.45 expected goals, not only because they've decided to play more open, but they not have a really good striker up top that is giving them elite production. Fulham are now starting young Brazilian Rodrigo Muniz up top and he's been on fire. In his 12.4 90s he is averaging 4.42 shots per 90 minutes and has already scored eight goals. He's a real threat in transition as opposed to Raul Jimenez who was starting up top for the first part of the season, which is why Fulham matches have been more chaotic.

Newcastle are dealing with a ton of injuries to their back line, so Eddie Howe has decided to go full throttle and play very aggressive out of possession. The result of that is Newcastle now playing incredibly high event back and forth matches that have featured the most expected goals of any team in the Premier League.

I have 3.76 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over here as well.

Pick:Over 3 (-118 via BetRivers) 

Brighton vs. Arsenal

Saturday, April 6, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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Dabbundo: Arsenal haven't trailed for a single minute of Premier League action since the calendar flipped to 2024. The Gunners have retained their best in the world defensive strength, conceding just 0.52 xGA per match since Jan. 1. That includes two matches against Liverpool and Manchester City, where the Gunners held both clubs under one expected goal. The primary difference between Arsenal in the first and second half has been a major improvement in their attacking production, headlined by the leap taken by wide forward Bukayo Saka.

The Gunners didn’t have Saka available for the match on Wednesday against Luton Town, and Gabriel Martinelli is working his way back to full fitness as well. Arsenal have put up some crooked numbers on porous PL defenses, but Brighton are a solidly above average unit. While Arsenal put up a ton of chances and goals on Newcastle, Burnley, Sheffield United and West Ham, it’s notable that they haven’t been nearly as potent when facing Porto twice, Manchester City and even underrated Brentford. Brighton are quietly a top six defense in the Premier League by xG allowed.

Arsenal are still just above average this season at creating chances from open play, and a not fully fit Saka will hamper their ability to generate big chances away from home. The Gunners' defense has traveled well, but it’s a tricky spot for their attack to generate enough clear chances to warrant a total at three. Brighton matches are 6-1-1 to the under in their last eight against English sides, in large part because the Seagulls don’t have their best attackers available either.

I’d bet under 3 at -120 or better on Saturday,

Pick: Under 3 (+100 via BetRivers)