Ranking the chances of every Euro 2024 nation to win it all

Do Albania have the least-talented team of these 24? Well, um, maybe. They are definitely in the running. What we do know is that, on top of that, Albania is stuck in a group with Spain and Italy, plus Croatia. If they don’t finish last in this group, we’d be surprised, and you can’t advance from that spot.

Serbia have some talent, with a few guys who ply their trade in Italy on top clubs. Of course, there are also guys playing in Greece and Saudi Arabia. England will likely take Group C, and Denmark are in a good place in terms of talent right now. Serbia? They seem to be on a down slope.

Ferenc Puskas isn’t walking through that door, as they say. Hungary have a really good player in Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai, but you can’t win a football tournament with one top-level player. It’s effectively a given Germany will finish above Hungary in Group A, but Scotland and Switzerland both have more talent as well.

Czechia née the Czech Republic is definitely not in a Golden Generation era, to be sure. The Czechs are another team in the running for the least-talented squad at Euro 2024. So many guys currently playing in Prague! The only reason Czechia aren't last is because they are in the easiest group in the tournament.

In a vacuum, if we were to ask you, “Are Austria one of the 10 best teams in Europe at the moment?” you’d assuredly say “No.” The team is good and laden with Bundesliga talent, but there is no elite  in a group with France and the Netherlands, and even Poland are no slouches. That’s why Austria is this low.

Milan Skriniar and Stanislav Lobotka lead a Slovakian team light on depth, but maybe with enough talent for a decent starting XI. They land this “high,” as it were, because Slovakia are in a relatively easy group. There is a chance they could finish second in the group, which would ensure a spot in the knockout stage. Now, there is basically no chance Slovakia would advance all that far from there, but you have truly no chance if you don’t make it there.

How far can one talent take a team? Georgia are Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is Georgia. Can the Napoli attacker work some magic? Some, sure! He helped get it here. He’s not Diego Maradona, though, and even Maradona had more talent around him. The group is easy, though, so Georgia have that going for them.

Group E is kind of a “Who is going through with Belgium?” situation. Also, honestly, Belgium have passed their window, so if things really break right we could see another team winning the group, though we aren’t betting on that. There are just so many guys from Romania that play in Romania’s unremarkable domestic league. Captain Nicolae Stanciu plays in Saudi Arabia. Opportunity matters, though!

Turkey are the last of the “other three” in Group F (the team that should win the group appears much higher on this list). In the past, sometimes Turkey haven’t looked like the most talented of squads, but have still done surprisingly well in tournaments. Plus, most of them play in Turkey, and that league can be hard to get a read on. We’re betting on Turkey finishing second in Group F, and that means a slight uptick in potential to win it all.

Things are, um, complicated for Ukraine right now. Their domestic players aren’t actually playing domestically right now. However, Ukraine have some real talent. They have a handful of guys who play in the Premier League, and then there is Andriy Lunin. The goalkeeper made 21 appearances for Real Madrid in La Liga this season, and eight in the Championship League. Yes, it’s because Thibault Courtois was hurt, but Lunin stepped up with aplomb. He hasn’t always been the go-to guy for Ukraine, but he should be now, and he could help get them out of the group stage.

Speaking of countries that will go as far as their goalkeepers take them. Benjamin Sesko is a promising forward. Petar Stojanovic is a steady defender. Slovenia will go as far as Jan Oblak take them. There have been times Oblak has been called by many the best keeper in the world. Football isn’t ice hockey, where a goalie can really take you far, but it helps to have a great one.

We have entered the, “Okay, we could see it happening…maybe…possibly” realm. Scotland winning would be a surprise, but not a stunner. Fortunately, Andrew Robertson, the country’s best player, emerged unscathed from a recent injury scare. Scotland have talent, and a group they could easily emerge from, with the real question being in goal. The keepers are a dicey lot, to be sure.

Poland were originally in our top 10, even with a tough group. After all, Poland have Robert Lewandowski to score goals, and Wojciech Szczesny to stop them. Those are two important things, and that’s why we felt pretty good about Poland. Then, in a warmup friendly, Lewandowski injured his hamstring. He's out for Poland's opener, and the best anybody can say is that there's hope he can play after that. Without Lewandowski, Poland are simply not the same team, so we had to drop them down our rankings a bit.

Croatia, on talent, would be higher. The problem is two teams we see as being decidedly better, Spain and Italy, are in its group. Now, a team can qualify from third place in its group, but not finishing in the top two means a team is playing with fire. Luka Modric, who is 38, is still required to play a key role for Croatia. That’s not ideal if you have title dreams, but Croatia have come up big in international tournaments in the past. Without any titles, but even so.

Speaking of veterans, Xherdan Shaqiri made the Switzerland roster, but the country no longer needs him in the starting XI, or even as a sub, thanks to its talent. The Swiss are particularly impressive defensively, thanks to guys like Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, and Yann Sommer. Don’t be surprised if Switzerland makes a real run. Do be surprised if they win it all, at least a bit.

These next two teams are in a slim tier between the “Would be a surprise” crew and a “True-blue contender” crew. Belgium in 2020 were a real-deal contender. Remember their Golden Generation? Well, Romelu Lukaku is now 31. Kevin de Bruyne is now 32 (and still awesome when healthy, but even so). There is still a lot of talent here, and we would possibly still have them in the contender tier save for one thing. When Thibault Courtois tore his ACL, he said he would not be part of the Belgium squad at Euro 2024. He’s healthy now, but he has not gone back on his word there. That is a game changer.

If you want a dark horse or a Cinderella or whatever vernacular you prefer, Denmark stand out for us. The Danes have a solid group, as Serbia and Slovenia are not too formidable, and even England can be got. Denmark have the veteran presence of Simon Kjaer and Christian Eriksen. Rasmus Hojlund is one of the best young forwards in the world. Do you like Brentford? Denmark have you covered! It’s a little concerning that Kasper Schmeichel now plays in Belgium, but we’re riding the good vibes!

Netherlands are always a contender to win it all. Netherlands never wins anything. It’s a tale as old as time. Of course the Dutch are talented! On the defense alone they have veteran captain Virgil van Dijk, an in-his-prime Nathan Ake, and younger Matthijs de Ligt. The Netherlands has attacking talent, midfield talent, you name it. It is in a weird spot in goal right now, though, and also plays in a group with France. Maybe finishing second in the group would play out well in terms of matchups, but we can’t know that right now, so we have to go with what we do know/feel.

The defending champs are sixth, and that feels reasonable. When Italy won in 2020, it was a slight surprise. Italy sandwiched winning Euro 2020 between failing to qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Italy have a great goalkeeper in Gianluigi Donnarumma, but beyond that the country has really seen a turnover in terms of national roster. Donnarumma is the only player on this squad with over 60 caps for Italy, and zero players have scored double-digit goals for country. Italy are the defending champions, but that only buys you so much goodwill four years later.

If Portugal doesn’t win a group competing against Czechia, Georgia, and Turkey, that would kind of be a disappointment as is. The squad looks quite good, and the fact it should breeze through its group helps raise its odds of winning it all. Portugal are laden with talent Premier League fans know well, such as Diogo Jota and Ruben Dias. Our fear? Portugal will play Cristiano Ronaldo. Like, at all. If he plays anything other than cameo minutes, manager Roberto Martinez has made a mistake.

We think Spain will win a group with Italy and Croatia in it, so clearly we like its talent levels. It’s too bad Spain can’t play two goalkeepers at once, as both Unai Simon and David Raya would start for most of these 24 nations. Rodri, perhaps the best defensive midfielder in the world, is there to serve as Spain’s spine. Spain have real scoring talent in Alvaro Morata and Ferran Torres. The only real question is manager Luis de la Fuente, who will be managing at his first major tournament.

Alright, let’s drill down. If you are an England fan, there’s a good chance you think we’re either too high or too low. Either football’s coming home, or England are going to finish at the bottom of its group. For us, we see one of the best collections of talent in the world under a manager who has been there for years, and the group paves the way to the knockout stage if it avoids any stumbles. Jordan Pickford gives England stability in net. Harry Kane remains one of the best goal scorers in the world, having just won the European Golden Boot. Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham are two excellent box-to-box midfielders. With a smidge more defensive talent, England might be our favorites. Instead, it has to settle for third. There should be no surprise if England win it all, but they fall just below a couple other nations.

Germany are the host country, for starters. Also, it's Germany, a staple of success in footballing competitions. The country’s best players are littered across the Bundesliga’s best teams. The guys who aren’t? Names like Kai Havertz, Pascal Gross (one of the top assist men in the Premier League), and the dynamic duo of Ilkay Gundogan and Marc-Andre ter Stegen from Barcelona. Oh, and Antonio Rudiger and Toni Kroos from Real Madrid, the latter a living icon of German football who is retiring after this tournament. To us, it’s close to a tossup between Germany and…

Hugo Lloris moves on, and Mike Maignan steps in. N’Golo Kante too old to be relied upon? Well, how about Youssouf Fofana? Or Real Madrid’s Aurelien Tchoumeni and Eduardo Camavinga? Ultimately, though, there is one primary reason why France is our favorite. One player can’t carry a football team to glory, but one player can get it over the top. Kylian Mbappe is the best player in the world. He plays for France. We’re not betting against him.