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Real Madrid Given Surprisingly Low Percentage of Winning the Champions League by Opta

Originally posted on Real Madrid CF on SI
By Jordan Merritt | Last updated Sep 16, 2025 4:43 AM ET

Real Madrid will always be in the top two when it comes to predictions to win the La Liga title. They are also never far from the top when it comes to winning the UEFA Champions League trophy. Los Blancos have won it more than any other team (15) and have won five of the last ten.

However, after a rocky season under Carlo Ancelotti, they struggled to advance past the first stage and needed the new play-off round to reach the round of 16. They beat Manchester City, which then drew up a Madrid derby against Atletico in the last 16. They beat them on penalties, but were beaten 5-1 on aggregate in the quarter-final stage against Arsenal.

The results from last season and life under a new head coach could be the reason Opta has Los Blancos ranked so low this season. After crunching all the numbers, Xabi Alonso's side has just the seventh-best chance of winning the tournament. Liverpool and Arsenal top the list, with Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea, and last season's winners PSG above them.

Opta believe Real Madrid have a 6.2% chance of winning the tournament and a 14.3% chance of making the final. The odds of making the final eight are higher than expected, at 47.7%. Last year's defeat at that stage was the first time they have not made the final four since the 2019-20 season.

: 2025-26

Our UEFA Champions League stats hub has live Opta supercomputer predictions, which will update on every day of the season.

Check out the latest projections ahead of the 2025-26 season start tomorrow...
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) September 15, 2025

They get their tournament underway on September 16 against Marseille, then face the Kazakhstan side Kairat, which gives them a chance for a good start. Last season, they won just two of their opening five games, which put them in a hole. They needed to win their last three games, which they did to advance.

Tough League Phase This Season for Real Madrid

This year the draw in the league phrase is no kinder to Real Madrid than last season. They face Premier League giants Liverpool and Manchester City, while also facing tough away trips to Portugal and Greece.

A good start will be vital, with Juventus at home in the third game, and they would love to have three points on the board before taking on Liverpool at Anfield. It will be a return for Trent Alexander-Arnold, which could be a hostile atmosphere for the 26-year-old. First, it's Marseille at the Bernabeu.

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This article first appeared on Real Madrid CF on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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