Soccer betting: USMNT takes on Mexico in Nations League final, Sunday 3/24

This context matters. The headlines surrounding the USMNT today are upbeat, reveling in the team's eventual 3-1 win over Jamaica to make it to the final. They gloss over the true story — and the true failure — hidden within that victory. Yes, the USMNT won, but it did so thanks to luck, fitness and circumstance. It conceded a goal in the opening 30 seconds, benefited from a messy, heartbreaking Jamaican own goal in the final 30 seconds, then went on to score another two when Jamaica tired in extra time. Those intervening 90 minutes, though? That whole game, in other words? Jamaica bossed it. The USMNT looked utterly baffled by Jamaica's organized play. It failed to do the thing good soccer teams must: learn on the fly and adapt. It failed to make a game of two halves.

With that lackluster semifinal in the rearview mirror, the USMNT must gear itself up to face its best friend and worst enemy: Mexico. 

These two countries have danced with each other in international soccer for over a century, and while the rivalry is stronger up here than it is down there (ask most Mexicans who their real rival is and they'll likely say Argentina) their meetings are must-watch events on both sides of the border. Mexico, under young, promising coach Jaime Lozano, smashed Panama 3-0 in its semifinal to make this match, and looked well-drilled and organized while doing so. Can it ride its superior coaching all the way to the trophy? Or will the USMNT battle its demons and win the Nations League for the third time?

Here are the bets we're keeping an eye on as the final draws near:

Result. The USMNT hasn't lost to Mexico since 2019, so while there's plenty of doom and gloom clouding the team at the moment, we still think it'll pull off a victory in Texas at +110. But we don't think it'll get through unscathed; we think it will win with Mexico scoring at least one goal at +400.

Goal Timing. And when, pray tell, will Mexico get that goal? We think it will get it early. The USMNT took a long time to warm up against Jamaica, and if we're being honest with ourselves, it didn't really start playing until extra time. We like Mexico winning the first half at +300; bettors looking to double that up with a USMNT victory can bet on Mexico winning the first half and the USMNT winning the second at a tasty +2500. 

Goal Over/Under. If we're expecting both teams to score, we're banking on at least two goals in this match. If we're expecting both teams to score and one to win in regular time, we're banking on at least three. That makes a total of over 2.5 goals interesting for us at +125.

The USMNT takes on Mexico in the Nations League Final on Sunday, March 24 at 9:15 p.m. ET.