Soccer betting: What to expect from Game 1 of the MLS Cup Playoffs

Once we find our Round 1 winners, we'll move onto the Conference Semifinals and the Conference Finals, each of which will be a one-game affair. The last two remaining teams — one from the East and one from the West — will play one final game to determine the winner of the 2024 MLS Cup.

There are four teams that stand above the rest as likely contenders:

Inter Miami. Even if you know nothing about MLS, you probably know Inter Miami, the pink-shirted team of World Cup winner Lionel Messi. Miami had a fantastic season in 2024, setting the all-time points record and winning the Supporters' Shield for having the best record of any team in the league. It did most of this without Messi's help; Miami quietly built a deep and functional roster while everyone else was busy obsessing over the diminutive Argentinian. It's the odds-on favorite to take home the Cup.

The Columbus Crew. Columbus enters the playoffs as the defending champion; it won the Cup in 2023 in grand style. Known to play the best and most beautiful soccer of anyone in MLS, Columbus is a team that values its collective strength over individual star power. Its soccer is fluid, intelligent and world-class, and coach Wilfried Nancy is one of the brightest minds in MLS.

The Los Angeles Galaxy. The chaos agent of these playoffs, the Galaxy should have entered as the top seed in the West, but threw it away in the 10th minute of injury time on the final day of the season because of course it did. This is a team that scores and concedes with aplomb, a team capable of impossible brilliance and stupidity in the same breath. The Galaxy is a wonderful watch for neutrals for this reason; you really never know what to expect from it.

Los Angeles FC. LAFC, the black-shirted, gritty, locked-down, let's-just-get-things-done-correctly counterpart to the Galaxy's wild abandon, benefited from the Galaxy's last-second collapse and finished first in the West. It's the home of French internationals Olivier Giroud and Hugo Lloris, and it's known to be stylish, pragmatic, calm, and fantastic in a tournament environment.

So. We've got tournament context. We've got tournament favorites. But where are the best bets in Game 1? We think they might be here:

Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United, Friday, Oct. 25 at 8:30 p.m. ET — This is a tantalizing pairing for many reasons: they're Southeastern rivals, they're two of the only MLS franchises to build significant fanbases outside of their own metro areas, and Miami's current coach once won the Cup with Atlanta. For all its intrigue, though, this matchup should be pretty cut and dry, right?

Wrong. Yes, Miami is the top seed in the east while Atlanta is the ninth. Yes, Miami got here by setting an all-time MLS points record while Atlanta got here on the back of one Brad Guzan save in the wildcard game against Montreal. But Atlanta seems to cast a spell over Miami whenever they play. In the Messi era, Miami's record against Atlanta stands at played three, won zero, drawn one and lost two with a cumulative goal difference of -5. It's Miami's worst record against anyone in MLS in that time period. (We shared some theories about how and why that happened if you're interested in a deeper dive.)
If you're an Atlanta truther, a contrarian, or just someone loves and appreciates Messi but is thoroughly sick of watching him dunk on the league while calling it forward progress (just us?), you might want to consider backing an Atlanta win at +600 or an Atlanta win or tie at +175. Both are far more likely outcomes than the odds lead them to appear.

And who might lead that Atlanta upset? Saba Lobzhanidze, that's who. Saba, the rare Double Georgian (he's from the nation of Georgia but plying his trade in the state of Georgia) loves scoring against Miami. He pulled off two glorious long-distance shots against the Herons earlier this season and looks hungry to net a third. He's available as an anytime goalscorer at +450, and frankly, those odds are ridiculous — he's one of the league's most reliable strikers going up against one of the league's least reliable defenses. No one strikes more fear in the heart of Miami center back Tomas Aviles than our good friend Saba.

The Los Angeles Galaxy vs. the Colorado Rapids, Saturday, Oct. 26 at 11 p.m. ET — This match looked excellent on paper two weeks ago, but things fell apart after Colorado lost its sparkling playmaker Djordje Mihailovic to injury on Decision Day. What once was a phenomenal Original Ten playoff battle pitching L.A.'s global starlets against Colorado's hungry kids is now a bit of a formality. No one, up to and very much including Colorado itself, thinks Colorado is going to walk away from this series victorious.

The odds agree; they've got L.A. as serious favorites. But all of the doom and gloom around Colorado's late-season implosion seems to have clouded a fundamental truth about L.A.: it concedes goals all the time. You'd have to scroll all the way down to seventh place in the Western Conference — coincidentally, Colorado — to find a team that conceded more than L.A. did in the regular season.

We're backing an L.A. win with at least one Colorado goal at +160. We have faith that Colorado will put something past L.A.'s tired defense even without Mihailovic's influence.

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC, Monday, Oct. 28 at 6:45 p.m. ET — For our money, this is the closest matchup in Round 1. Cincy started the season brilliantly but fell apart as it drew to a close; NYCFC started in a rut but turned things around in dramatic fashion. They're meeting at a fascinating point in both of their arcs.
While the odds support our theory that this matchup is close, they still give Cincy a bit too much credit for a) its historical performance and b) its home field advantage. But Cincy hasn't been the Cincy of old in months, and frankly, its home record is garbage—you'd have to go back to August to find the last time it pulled off a win at TQL stadium. To cap things off, NYCFC beat Cincy 3-2 just a few short weeks ago and clearly knows how to break it down. We're going against the grain here and backing an NYCFC win at +300.