Supercomputer gives Liverpool just 24.3% chance vs PSG

It’s a question every Liverpool fan is asking ahead of tonight’s clash with Paris Saint-Germain – do we actually stand a chance?

According to Opta Analyst, the answer is far from encouraging.

Opta prediction shows Liverpool underdogs

In their detailed preview, Opta didn’t hold back on the scale of the challenge facing Liverpool, even framing it bluntly: “Do Out-of-Form Liverpool Stand Any Chance Against All-Conquering PSG?”

The numbers paint a clear picture of how much things have changed in just 12 months.

Last season, we went into this fixture as favourites, with a 58.3% chance of progressing.

This time, that’s flipped dramatically.

Opta reveal: “This time, it is PSG who made it through in the majority of its 10,000 simulations (59.6%).”

Even focusing purely on the first leg in Paris, the drop-off is stark.

They add: “Liverpool had a 34.4% win probability last season, compared to this season’s 24.3%.”

Form and momentum favour PSG

The reasoning behind those numbers is hard to ignore, especially after what we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Opta highlight just how sharply our form has declined since that Champions League exit last season.

They explain: “Liverpool have gone from losing fewer than 10% of their games under Slot before PSG last season to being defeated in almost a third of their games since.”

In contrast, PSG have gone from strength to strength, winning 67.2% of their matches in that same period and becoming one of Europe’s most consistent sides.

There’s also a worrying trend against English teams.

Opta note: “PSG have a tremendous recent record against Premier League teams… unbeaten in their last six Champions League games against English sides (W5 D1).”

That underlines just how big the task is for us tonight, especially coming off the back of the 4-0 defeat to Manchester City.

Szoboszlai admitted the “fighting spirit wasn’t there enough”, while Van Dijk said he “felt bad for the fans”, and those concerns only amplify what the data is already suggesting.

Still, football isn’t played on a spreadsheet.

If there’s ever a moment for Arne Slot’s side to prove people wrong, it’s on this stage, against this opposition, with everything on the line.