The 15 teams that could win the 2025-26 Champions League

I’m starting with the outside shots, and I have four of them. As a Premier League team, you might think Spurs would be higher. After all, finishing in the top four in the Premier League? That pretty much makes you one of the world’s better teams, and Spurs has been in a Champions League final. The issue with that, of course, is Spurs played its way here by winning Europa League. It finished 17th in the Premier League last season. Even with a new manager, we can’t have the club beyond a dark horse.

Dortmund has also played in a Champions League final, and done so quite recently. The German club has traditionally been a font of young talent, and then it’s just a matter of striking at the right time. It doesn’t quite feel like this will be one of those years, though. You can’t count out Dortmund, not with players like Serhou Guirassy and Julian Brandt, but the club finished fourth last year and doesn’t seem to have a full-on upswing in young talent going right now.

A Turkish club with an outside chance of winning the Champions League? Sure, there is a degree of trying to spice things up here, but of any club outside the biggest, brightest European leagues, Galatasaray has the best chance. After winning the Turkish league last season, it did not mess around. Sure, the club brought in veteran midfielder Ilkay Gundogan, German born to Turkish parents, but they also signed Leroy Sane and, in a huge splash, Victor Osimhen. Gala has talent, and notably has shown itself willing to bring in non-Turkish talent. Plenty of talented Turkish players, but not enough for a Champions League push.

The last of the dark horses is, for our money, the second-best team in Ligue 1. Monaco is a dark horse, though, because France is one heavy hitter and a handful of teams trying to rise up in its shadow. The club decided to take a few swings, bringing in Ansu Fati on loan and adding Eric Dier and Paul Pogba. Now, Pogba will never be the player he used to be, because he used to be one of the five best players in the world. If he can be even 75 percent of that, though, Monaco could be in business.

We’d say we’re now in “mild surprise” territory. These clubs aren’t favorites, but nobody is counting them out. Under Diego Simeone, Atletico Madrid has impressed in the Champions League and made life miserable for opponents. The club even played in two finals fairly recently! The thing is, “fairly recently” means 2014 and 2016, and Simeone’s team couldn’t get over the hump either time. Doesn’t mean they can’t! Just means we haven’t seen it yet.

Napoli has emerged from out of the shadow of the Milan clubs and Juventus to be the best team in Italy the last few years. To that end, they won Serie A last season and also won in the 2022-23 season. Napoli has several names you likely know, such as Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and manager Antonio Conte. Of course, age and wear means De Bruyne and Lukaku aren’t quite the players they once were. If you are the best team in Italy, you can win the Champions League. That’s just something the club hasn’t threatened to do just yet.

Inter’s path to being in the “wouldn’t be surprising” category is as simple as it gets. The club was in the final last season. It also got absolutely rolled by the champs, who will of course be coming up later. Making it to the final is impressive. Losing 5-0, the biggest rout in Champions League final history, means you still have plenty to prove.

Chelsea, for us, was on the threshold between this group and the next one. It is one of the four best clubs in the Premier League, it has won the Champions League multiple times within the past 20 seasons, and it has a ton of money. This current group hasn’t won the Champions League, however, and neither has this manager. Chelsea makes roster moves with as much gusto as any club, but it still has been bumping its head on the ceiling.

We are now at the “wouldn’t be surprising” level, though Arsenal certainly is not the favorite, or even one of the favorites. When you finish second in the Premier League three seasons in a row, you’re one of the best clubs in the world. You don’t need to win your league title to win the Champions League. Just ask Chelsea. Arsenal has never won the Champions League, but that could certainly change.

After a one-year blip, Bayern returned to the top of the Bundesliga. For a long time, it has been one of the biggest and best clubs in the world. Harry Kane can still score goals, but he’s not alone. Luis Diaz and Nicolas Jackson are interesting additions. Bayern likely don’t need to worry about winning the Bundesliga, and it has the high-end talent and the depth of quality to take the Champions League.

Last season was tough for Manchester City by its standards. Why, it finished a lowly third in the Premier League! Perish the thought! The club still has Pep Guardiola, it still has Erling Haaland to score goals, and it also added Gianluigi Donnarumma, the keeper for last season’s Champions League victors. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Man City add yet-another Premier League title, and a Champions League win is just as plausible.

Yes, Lamine Yamal is as exciting as any player, much less any young player, in the world. He’s not alone in terms of Barcelona’s talent, though. That’s how it won La Liga last season. You could question, to a degree, Hansi Flick’s managerial style in terms of how it works in a tournament format, but that’s a minor quibble that just means Barcelona isn’t one of the absolute favorites.

After winning the Premier League last season, of course Liverpool has to be here. The only thing is, this Liverpool is not that Liverpool. Though the Reds won the toughest league in the world, the roster has been made over extensively. Is it better? Arguably, but there are more question marks because of that. Question marks simply born out of uncertainty, though, not skepticism. Liverpool winning the Champions League would come as no surprise.

If we have favorites among this level, it would be our final two clubs. With Real Madrid, it kind of always has to be here. The club has won a record 15 Champions League titles. Six of them have come since the 2013-14 season. You know Real Madrid is always going to have a talented roster. You know the club is always laden with Champions League experience. Like it or not, you have to always bet on Real Madrid being in the mix.

Of course, we do still have the defending champions to get to. Even after losing Donnarumma, PSG has to be one of the favorites. It can effectively sleepwalk through Ligue 1. PSG’s roster, and financial might, greatly outweigh the rest of France. Winning the Champions League is where the club’s primary goals lie, and it finally did it last season — and fairly easily, at that. Definitely easily in that 5-0 final win. Repeating as Champions League winners isn’t easy, but when you are the defending champs, nobody should count you out.