The five most likely candidates to be relegated from Serie A

There was a massive twist in the survival race at the end of last season in Serie A. After finishing level on points in the final relegation spot, Hellas Verona and Spezia had to face off in a single tie-breaker to see who stayed up.

Hellas Verona won that day, but in this season’s relegation picture, things look a little bleak again. With newly promoted Frosinone and Genoa comfortably out of the drop zone, all the pressure is on five teams who have already established a foothold on the top flight. Italian Serie A Odds | UKClubSport paint a prediction of the survival race in Serie A in the second part of the campaign.

Salernitana

With just 12 points from their opening 19 matches of the campaign, Pippo Inzaghi’s side currently sit at the bottom of the Serie A table and seem likely to go down to Serie B unless something big happens in the January window, considering that a minimum target of 30 points is generally required for a shot at safety.

It’s not just the two victories in 19 games but also the huge drop in performance levels from last season when they finished 15th with 42 points, winning seven games from nine at home.

The Granata now need a massive turnaround in the second half of the 2023-24 season as they are a long way short of any similar kind of projection. After losing to Juventus this past Sunday, they will meet Napoli and Roma in two of the next three Serie A fixtures. Not the kindest start to a big few months.

Empoli

Unless Gli Azzurri throw the kitchen sink at getting a striker in the 2024 January transfer window, they are in peril. 10 goals in their first 19 matches of the season spells huge trouble ahead for them.

Last season, Empoil finished above Salernitana by one point, but the Tuscans have gone the same way as Salernitana this term, and the lack of scoring threat is the most concerning aspect of their campaign so far.

Empoli managed 37 goals in Serie A last term, and aside from new signings, they will require a boost in output from Francesco Caputo, Nicolò Cambiaghi and Tommaso Baldanzi to get anywhere near the 17th placement in May.

Cagliari

After 19 rounds of action, Cagliari are four points behind Frosinone and six below Genoa, who gained Serie A promotion alongside the Sardinians last term.

Despite three home wins in the first 19 meetings of this campaign, the first half of the season was quite disappointing for the Sardinians, but there is still reason for their fans to have hope.

Seven of the ten matches they played against teams in the top ten were away from home. So that’s a huge share of tough matches out of the way, leaving the road potentially a little clearer in the second half of the campaign.

The Islanders have already proven their ability to beat those around them, like Genoa, Sassuolo and Frosinone, so that should help them clear their troubles in the long run.

Udinese

It was a strange first half of the campaign for I Bianconeri, who collected just two victories in the Girone d’Andata.

Udinese replaced Andrea Sottil with Gabriele Cioffi in October 2023 and their 11 draws in 19 games are contributing to keeping them outside the relegation zone, at least for now. Udinese dropped several points against teams in and around the bottom six, but the fact that they have shown resilience to pick up a point here and there suggests that they could be all right eventually.

Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona look in a fair spot of bother as they are not only in the relegation zone but are also seeing many players leave in January with the club’s future uncertain and President Setti under investigation. From a top-half-of-the-table finish in the 2021-22 season to barely scraping survival in the following campaign, there is no doubt the club is going in the wrong direction.

Head Coach Marco Baroni will be highly frustrated at the number of cheap goals that they have given away this season but granting a huge three points at home against Cagliari just before Christmas gave them a little lift.

Hellas Verona have an extremely testing fixture list in January and February that could severely knock some wind out of them. With the final game of the season against title contenders Inter, things look even tougher for the Gialloblu.

Predictions For The Drop

Salernitana and Empoli both look as if they could fall a long way short of survival this season. It’s hard to hit the Christmas period and be less than halfway to thirty points so those two are rightly relegation candidates.

After them, it is Hellas Verona who look the most troubled side. Baroni has been praising his players lately, especially considering that the situation off the pitch isn’t ideal, but with Isak Hien and Filippo Terracciano who have already left the Bentegodi, things are not likely to improve in the near future.

They have one of the better defences among the relegation candidates but look toothless going forward, especially on the road. After only surviving by the skin of their teeth last season, there has been little improvement this term.

With Udinese and Cagliari looking more likely to turn things around, Hellas Verona’s stay in the top flight looks under threat.