The Premier League relegation battle: Who and what is at risk?

After a long, stilted season interrupted by the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the Premier League is finally drawing to a close. All 20 teams will play this weekend to hammer out their final place in the table. Manchester City has already been confirmed as the champion, but there’s plenty still left to contest.

The biggest remaining issue is relegation. The Premier League follows a promotion/relegation system with the rest of the English soccer pyramid. This means that the league’s three worst teams at the end of the season will drop to the second tier, while the top three teams in the second tier will move up to replace them. Imagine the worst teams in Major League Baseball moving down to Triple-A ball—that’s the threat that struggling Premier League teams face.

One of the three relegation spots is sealed—hapless Southampton will finish last no matter what happens this weekend. But the remaining two spots will be settled on the final day: Leicester City, Everton and Leeds are all in the mix. 

If some of those names surprise you, you’re not alone. Leicester City was the Premier League champion in 2016, and Everton hasn't played outside England’s top league since 1954. One or both will be going down.

Everton controls its fate. With a win over Bournemouth, it will save itself and relegate Leicester and Leeds regardless of how either team performs.

For Leicester and Leeds—tied on points in the 18th and 19th before a ball is kicked—things are a bit more complex. 

Both must win to save themselves, but a win may not be enough. Leicester must win against West Ham and hope for an Everton loss or tie; Leeds must win against Tottenham Hotspur and hope for Leicester to lose or tie and Everton to lose by three or more goals.

For the teams that do get relegated, they’ll lose more than just pride.

Sky Sports estimated that teams lose roughly $110M in Premier League television distributions when relegated to the second tier.

While the Premier League offers "parachute" payments of around $50M to soften the blow, they’re not nearly enough to make up the difference.

It’s a lot of pressure—and every relegation-embattled coach handles it differently.

For Sam Allardyce, coach of Leeds United, that means inviting former Leeds stars to speak to his players and fire them up for the challenge.

“They’ve spoken about how important Leeds is, what it means to them,” Allardyce explained to The Guardian.

“I hope we’re talking in a very positive nature on Monday,” he added, “and I have a hangover.”