The Worrying Numbers Behind Joao Pedro’s Goal Drought

Arriving in time to be cavalry for the Club World Cup, Joao Pedro hit the ground running and managed to be a key contributor in the run-up to the final. He even got involved in the win over Paris Saint-Germain, getting a goal of his own. After a strong start to the season, he has since been on a drought without a strike of his own in Chelsea blue since the August 30 win over Fulham. Players can go through these kind of dips of course, but what is worrying is the numbers behind the Brazilian’s dip in output.

Joao Pedro’s Goal Drought by The Numbers

No Change in Touches

While it might be an obvious thing to blame, it can’t be put down to a lack of activity. He has as many touches in most matches during this drought as he did when he was nabbing goals and assists earlier in the season. What’s getting worse is his efficiency as he turned 36 touches against West Ham into three goal contributions, he had 40 and 44 against Brighton and Manchester United, respectively, both outings where he didn’t take a single shot.

Looking at his heat map on SofaScore, it starts to make sense. He has very few patches in and around the box, instead having darker areas where you’d expect a number ten to operate. The absence of Cole Palmer has no doubt caused an issue as there’s one less creative body around the box to play off, this has seemingly pushed Pedro back more and more to pick things up instead of allowing him to lurk and drive into space.

Shooting

One common criticism of a player like Nicolas Jackson was his ability to miss chances; he was often generating a decent xG from shooting positions, just not putting them away. Arguably the most damning thing about Pedro’s current goal drought is his absolute anonymity when it comes to troubling the goalkeeper.

Since the match with Fulham, where he last found the net, he has taken a total of two shots for the Blues, yes, two whole shots from six fixtures. The kicker is that neither one was even on target, meaning the last time he forced a save from an opposing goalkeeper was in August.

For an attacking force, often used at the number nine spot, to create just 0.1 xG across six matches is abysmal. While he has worked hard off the ball, he has become quite the ghost when it comes to actually having an end product, even his assists have dipped, generating just 0.4 xGA during his slump.

The Worry

What is most worrying for fans is not his struggles to find the net, Chelsea fans have become numb to seeing some profligacy over the past decade or so. The real issue is how ineffective he’s proving to be for the overall attack. He’s not creating shots for himself or setting up high quality chances while his progressive carries and passes numbers remain inconsistent.

This is something that can be sorted by some tactical movements but the current signs are that the Brazilian is really going to struggle in a side without someone like Palmer or Liam Delap to open up space for him.