As the jet stream begins dropping further south, storms will be able to make their way down the coast and into SoCal. A giant "U" shape is forming in the jet stream over the northeast Pacific, allowing rain, winds, and swell to travel further south. The next low, or storm system, will actually drop as far south as SoCal before turning onshore on Saturday. As a result, we'll receive loads of rainfall, huge swell, and some pretty strong winds.
The storm system doesn't actually arrive until Saturday which leaves Friday as a pretty good surf opportunity. Lingering ground swell from earlier in the week should be in place along with all-around peaceful conditions. This swell weakens, and periods get shorter as we progress through Friday and into Saturday. By late Saturday morning, the swell starts to increase, eventually coming to a peak early Sunday morning.
Winds with the system moving in will likely be an issue for surfers. Friday shouldn't be too bad other than late at night when winds pick up from the south. Southerly winds really kick up on Saturday as the center of low-pressure inches closer. We could get a break in the wind Saturday evening, but models are showing winds increasing again for Sunday morning.
Despite winds being on and off after Saturday evening, rain looks like it'll stick around. The first band of precipitation, likely including thunderstorms, moves through early Saturday morning. After that, lighter, but more scattered rainfall will continue through at least Sunday morning. Rainfall totals look pretty consistent at around 1-2 inches up and down the coast. Along with the ordinary weather hazards associated with winds and rain, the bacterial runoff will make for non-ideal surfing conditions from early Saturday afternoon onward.
Best Bets
- Friday morning and afternoon looks to have the cleanest waves and nicest weather conditions. 4-5 ft waves should be present near San Diego with 3-4 ft heights near Ventura.
- There could be a surf opportunity early Saturday morning south of LA before the rain picks up. 5-6 ft waves could be possible.
-The largest waves of the weekend will occur Sunday morning at 8 ft near the border. Winds and runoff contamination will likley be a problem, however.
FRIDAY
Friday starts off pretty normal with lingering northwest ground swell from a previous system coming from the north Pacific. Morning waves look pretty nice and with good weather conditions, this may be the best time to surf. We'll see 4-5 ft waves near San Diego with Oxnard/Ventura likely getting in on 3-4 ft swells first thing in the morning. Other west facing shorelines will generally see between 2-3 ft heights.
Waves may slightly increase in the early afternoon but are expected to fall as we approach the evening. We should end up finishing Friday with about the same size waves as what we start with in the morning. Periods range between 13 and 14 seconds throughout the day – nice for surfing. A light onshore breeze is expected during the first half of the day with speeds no faster than 10 mph. By the evening, winds turn to out of the south with faster speeds (up to 15 mph) north of LA. We shouldn't see anything faster than 5 mph to the south.
SATURDAY
Things start to turn ugly Saturday morning as the first of storms moves in from the north. There may be a brief window of good surfing around San Diego early in the morning before the rain moves through. With the help of winds further offshore, waves grow by about a foot overnight Friday. We'll see 5-6 ft heights around San Diego with 4-5 ft waves around Ventura.
Waves grow even further as we progress into the afternoon. Between 7 and 8 ft waves are likely by 6 pm near San Diego with Ventura seeing 5-7 ft heights. All other west facing shorelines will generally see a 4-5 ft swell. Periods look decent at around 11-12 seconds, but winds and rain will likely be an issue. South winds between 5-15 mph will be present across the shore and rain should lighten up some but not enough. Surfing is not recommended.
SUNDAY
The swell reaches its peak by Sunday morning with 8 ft waves becoming more widespread around the San Diego area. Other west facing shorelines are looking at between 5 and 7 ft waves on average. Periods actually look pretty good during this time frame at around 12-13 seconds. However, rain and winds are still likely to be present making for another dangerous surf time.
By the afternoon and evening, rain may be finished up but the bacterial runoff from earlier precipitation will be an issue. On top of this, winds still don't look very good at 10-15 mph coming in from the south. Waves come down by several feet throughout the day with San Diego hardly seeing anything over 6 ft in size by the evening. We should experience a 2-3 ft drop in wave height across the area.
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