Surf Forecast: Will the 2024 Lexus WSL Finals Get Waves?

Back when Sean Collins was mystifying the world with his ability to forecast surf so accurately, one of his secret weapons was a vault of satellite charts that were printed and organized by day and year in large, metal filing cabinets in the Surfline office. By the time I was working there in the late '90s, there were decades of historical weather and swell information on file.

Fast forward to the birth of the WSL Finals at Lower Trestles three years ago and the window that was selected to run the one-day, winner-take-all fight for the world title largely based on Surfline's historical records. The window during the second week of September has proven to be the most consistent week of the year at the famed Southern California A-frame. 

And for the last three years, the historical trend has bore out in epic fashion. The Pacific has delivered for every contest, especially the first year, when it was almost too big for the cobblestone point to handle. 

The surf forecast for the 2024 Lexus WSL Finals doesn't appear quite so promising. We're still a week out from the start of the waiting period on September 6, and two weeks out from the end of the waiting period on September 14, but right now, this thing's shaping up to be a small-wave shootout. 

Save a round of tropical surf a couple weeks ago, the South Pacific has been pretty sleepy this summer and the Trestles zone has been challenged to top chest- to shoulder-high. The area's also been plagued by pesky south wind, which is the wrecker of small, gutless conditions. 

Digging into Surfline's long range models and other charts, there doesn't appear to be any significant swell on the horizon. There may be a little bump right at the start of the waiting period, but it flatlines after that. Again, there's time for things to turn around, but extended forecasting for Trestles is relatively accurate, compared to somewhere like Teahupo'o where the swells are generated much closer to the break.

Luckily, the bathymetry of Lowers sucks in any trace of south swell in the water, and while other spots up and down the coast will be flat, there's still a good, quality wave at Lowers. At the end of the day, these are the best surfers in the world and more than capable of putting on a good show. Like surf fans everywhere, we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.