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The first few days of the event window will start out with small overlapping spells from the south and southwest with modest yet contestable surf. The south southwest will move in midweek, topping out over Wednesday and Thursday, the 15th and 16th, with overhead surf at Punta Roca. After that peak, the surf will slowly simmer back down over the rest of the event window with the swell all set to move in. It's the local conditions that are a big wildcard at this point. Models have been and continue to indicate that we'll see tropical weather ramp up in the region next week, possibly even with a tropical cyclone developing, thus making local conditions highly volatile.

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