2024 French Open predictions: Betting picks for Monday matches

2024 French Open Predictions

Henri Squire (-192) vs Max Purcell (+160) 

5 a.m. ET

Put simply, this is a fade of the Aussie on a surface he's never fared well, his style doesn't work on and when he enters in horrific form (even on his preferred hard courts down on the Challenger circuit).

Now, I'm no proponent of blind fades. I think it's lazy and can lead to poor wagers. When looking to fade someone, we obviously want a favorable number and price, but also an opponent who is competent on the surface, enters with some form and is potentially undervalued by the market.

Enter the big German. Squire not only qualified for the main draw (check that form box), but he did so with a pair of underdog victories and an easy cover against the spread in the lone match where he was a favorite (there's your consistent undervaluation).

He has a serve that can work in slower conditions, but most importantly he's transformed himself from what many may call a servebot as recently as early 2023, where he was playing a lot of indoor hard court ITF events, into a player that plays above .500 tennis on clay at the Challenger level, reached a final and beat some competent players at that level along the way.

As for Purcell, other than beating fellow players that are no good on clay on quasi-hard courts in Houston and the altitude of Madrid, he's avoided clay like the plague.

He doesn't play with spin, has been super error prone, his attempts to serve-and-volley as much less effective on the red stuff and his serve's effectiveness is blunted by slower conditions.

Throw in a slew of straight set losses in weaker Asian Challengers in the last few weeks and I have no clue why he isn't at least a 5-6 game underdog.

Picks: Squire -3.5 games (-112 via FanDuel)

Dusan Lajovic (-170) vs Roman Safiullin (+140) 

10 a.m. ET

We have another big mismatch in terms of surface preferences and styles conducive to success on red clay in this contest.

Though Safiullin does have a trio of wins during the clay swing, the results are as unimpressive as one would expect from a flatter hitter that plays an incredibly aggressive and power based game. Contrast that with his Serbian opponent in this one, who plays with plenty of spin, works the outer thirds of the court and has an impressive serve and forehand combination of his own.

Now, neither of those shots measures up in the power department, but he can hit them so heavily that they're incredibly effective and pushing his opponents behind the baseline, opening up space and when they take off after making contact with the dirt, they're an effective offensive weapon in his own right.

With Lajovic's game built with far more margin for error and the fact he has far more experience and career success on the surface in his career, I'm happy to back him as a favorite in the -160 range.

Pick: Lajovic -2.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)