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Analysis: The most open WTA French Open in years? Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff flanked by surprise names

Originally posted on TennisUpToDate.com | Last updated May 29, 2025 9:52 AM ET

On Thursday, we will get the Last 32 line-up confirmed at the French Open but is has paid heed to the notion that WTA tennis is still very much unpredictable with top seeds falling left right and centre. Our analysis delves into the draw and who remains who likely will get to the latter stages.

One name stands out in the top quarter but even then she may still have a tough assignment in the Last 16. That of course being Aryna Sabalenka. The World No.1 came into this tournament as an out and out favourite with a good draw and that remains the case.

She faces Olga Danilovic next who continues to thrive and shine. Watched on by footballer boyfriend Jan Oblak yesterday, she saw off Danielle Collins in three sets. One test that Sabalenka won't need to pass.

But she could yet face Amanda Anisimova who looks to peak at the right time again. Winning a WTA 1000 title earlier in the season, she is 16th seed at this tournament but hasn't massively kicked on since then. But she has only played nine games over two matches with a retirement and a thrashing of Viktorija Golubic. She faces Clara Tauson though who is a formidable opponent especially on this surface.

But given the troubles that she has given Sabalenka in the past, the smart money would be that she is the final player to test the Belarusian until the latter stages.

Sabalenka-Zheng Qinwen likely, good route for Svitolina

The next section though paves the way for a meeting between Sabalenka and Zheng Qinwen. The latter beat her recently in Rome. She faces Victoria Mboko in the third round having mastered Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Emiliana Arango. It has not been an easy road for the Chinese number one who has not been in consistent form all year. She didn't have coach Pere Riba until post Australian Open and has added pressure now as a bit of a hot commodity commercially.

She faces someone who could be a hot commodity for the future in Victoria Mboko who came through qualifying and saw off. Lulu Sun and Eva Lys comfortably. The winner faces Dayana Yastremska or Liudmila Samsonova. Diana Shnaider, Peyton Stearns both fell in this section.

Jasmine Paolini remains involved further down and faces Yulia Starodubtseva who is a Lucky Loser who saw off Anastasia Potapova. Linda Noskova was the theorised opponent based off seeding but lost to the Russian in the first round. The winner likely faces Elina Svitolina who faces Bernarda Pera.

A simpler test for Svitolina who albeit is perhaps the most sure fire bet after the leading three to reach the latter stages. Pera saw off Donna Vekic yesterday. So it will likely be a latter stage meeting between Paolini and Svitolina for a spot in the Quarter-Finals.

Iga Swiatek seems to be back in some semblance of form and hoping to forget her torrid time in Stuttgart, Rome and Madrid. She will be hoping that she faces Elena Rybakina in the Last 16. She next takes on Jaqueline Cristian. But Rybakina faces Swiatek's arch nemesis Jelena Ostapenko.

Onto the bottom section which sees the Last 32 confirmed today and it is very much leaning towards two players in Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva.

Andreeva reached the semi-finals last year and faces Ashlyn Krueger which likely will be the final chance to dump out the 18-year-old Russian. She faces either qualifier Joanne Garland or Yulia Putintseva if she wins through. Then it will be potentially either good friend Daria Kasatkina or Paula Badosa in the Quarter-Finals.

Pegula, Keys and Gauff anchor open route for American stars

Or knowing how the draw has gone, it can't rule out Elena-Gabriela Ruse or Leolia Jeanjean especially given that Kasatkina's form has been indifferent up until this week and Badosa's injury is still a question mark. While it has been said she is back to 100%, hearsay and reality are two different things. So Andreeva likely will move through to face potentially Jessica Pegula.

But Pegula faces Ann Li and is prone to shock exits as the last few weeks have shown. If she can show her quality, it is perhaps the easiest section. With Muchova, Sakkari, Avanesyan and even Mertens all falling, Pegula has had it open up for her. She'd face potentially Frech or Vondrousova then potentially Parks or Kalinina for a spot in the Quarter-Finals.

Even Madison Keys will be wary of trip hazards but should find her way through. Katie Boulter despite a recent title win in Paris at Trophee Clarins won't be favoured to beat the American then it is a toss of a coin whether it will be Azarenka or Kenin.

Then it is anybody's guess who wins through as Hailey Baptiste or Nao Hibino/ Robin Montgomery or Jessica Bouzas Maneiro await with Beatriz Haddad Maia and Emma Navarro in particular falling. So in theory Keys should have a good route through.

Finally onto section four and Coco Gauff is the standout. She faces junior star Tereza Valentova next up in what should be a real test of the Czech prodigy's armoury against a player in form. Marie Bouzkova or Sonay Kartal are the next opponent after that then it likely on paper comes from Barbora Krejcikova on her return to action or potentially Ekaterina Alexandrova.

While tricky, it is no means a hard task for Gauff's calibre. But given the amount of seeds that have fallen this tournament again it could be a trip hazard. She will sight a tie with Madison Keys in the latter stages but one loss for either could spell a domino effect and make it even more of the most wide open draw in a long time.

This article first appeared on TennisUpToDate.com and was syndicated with permission.

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