Analysis | Winners and losers of the ATP Madrid Open 2025

The second ATP Masters 1000 event of the season has crowned a new champion: Casper Ruud. After two thrilling weeks of clay-court action, the Madrid Open 2025 delivered no shortage of storylines. Jack Draper departs the Spanish capital with plenty of momentum, while Jannik Sinner maintains his grip on the No. 1 ranking, despite being sidelined.

Spanish fans were left disheartened by the early retirement of local hero Carlos Alcaraz, but the men’s draw at the Caja Mágica still offered plenty of excitement and revelations. Ruud sealed a flawless tournament, Draper cemented himself as a serious threat on clay, and several players left Madrid in fine form. Others—most notably Novak Djokovic and, to an extent, Alcaraz—exit the Spanish capital with more questions than answers.

Winners

Jannik Sinner

The world No. 1 remains one of the event’s biggest winners—ironically, without even setting foot on court. Despite his absence due to suspension, neither of his closest rivals, Alexander Zverev (No. 2) nor Carlos Alcaraz (No. 3), managed to capitalize.

Sinner returns to action next week at his home tournament in Rome, with little pressure on his ranking. While some rust is expected in his first matches back, his position at the top remains secure.

The only downside for the Italian? The rise of serious contenders such as Draper and Ruud, the latter a proven Grand Slam finalist. Nevertheless, Sinner enters Rome as the clear favorite, based on the form he displayed prior to his suspension—having last played in the final of the China Open in October 2024.

Jack Draper

The British left-hander continues his meteoric rise in 2025. Fresh off his maiden Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells, Draper reached the final in Madrid, confirming that his talent translates across all surfaces—including clay.

Set to rise to a career-high No. 5 in the world, Draper has quickly become the player no one wants to face. While his talent was never in doubt, his rapid adaptation to slower surfaces has stunned the field and positioned him as a dark horse heading into Roland Garros.

Casper Ruud

The newly crowned Madrid champion returns to the top 10 and, more importantly, claims his first ATP Masters 1000 title. Ruud, long a fixture in the clay-court elite, now heads into the final stretch of the season’s clay swing with confidence—and perhaps for the first time, with genuine Grand Slam-winning belief. He will be a formidable force at Roland Garros.

Lorenzo Musetti

It’s been a breakthrough clay season for the 22-year-old Italian. After falling just short in the Monte Carlo final due to injury, Musetti made another deep run in Madrid, reaching the semifinals. Alongside Sinner, he now leads the Italian charge heading into the Rome Masters, playing some of the best tennis of his young career.

Losers

Alexander Zverev

With Alcaraz out, the path seemed open for world No. 2 Alexander Zverev to claim his first Madrid title since 2021. Fresh from a title win in Munich, the German looked poised to capitalize—until he once again ran into Francisco Cerúndolo, who remains unbeaten against Zverev on the ATP Tour.

A straight-sets loss in the round of 16 was a major setback. Zverev now faces a daunting challenge: defending his Rome title and Roland Garros final points. A slip in either could jeopardize his top-three status.

Carlos Alcaraz

Madrid was supposed to be a triumphant homecoming for the two-time Wimbledon champion. Instead, a lingering injury forced Alcaraz to retire early, leaving fans disappointed and casting doubt over his preparation for Rome and Roland Garros.

Despite a strong clay-court showing earlier this spring—with a title in Monte Carlo and a final in Barcelona—Alcaraz’s fitness is now the biggest question mark heading into the season’s second Grand Slam. The return of Jannik Sinner only complicates matters for the former No. 1.

Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, and Tommy Paul

It was a tough tournament for Team USA’s leading men, none of whom progressed past the round of 16.

Ben Shelton, coming off a runner-up finish in Munich, appeared to be gaining traction on clay after defeating Cerúndolo en route to that final. But he fell short against Czech youngster Jakub Mensik, who proved more comfortable on the slower surface.

Tommy Paul began brightly, surviving a tense opener against Brazil’s Joao Fonseca before ousting Karen Khachanov. However, he was overwhelmed by Draper in the fourth round.

Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, arrived in Madrid without any clay-court matches under his belt this season. Despite winning early rounds against lower-ranked opponents, he was thoroughly outplayed by eventual champion Ruud in straight sets.

While the Americans have improved on clay in recent years, Madrid showed they still have ground to make up when facing Europe’s elite during the spring swing.