Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka: The Stolen Rivalry

Now and then, tennis cooks up a mouthwatering rivalry that tends to, in many ways, define the sport for as long as the rivalry lasts. Such rivalries tend to add an extra sizzle to a sport that has continued to garner more attention over recent decades. In many ways, these match-ups become the cherry on the cake, becoming what most fans look forward to.

In recent years, tennis fans and enthusiasts have been spoiled for choice. We have had the individual rivalries revolving around the “Big 3” of Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic. For a while, we also had the Carlos Alcaraz – Novak Djokovic rivalry, and, more recently, the Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner rivalry, which is even more enthralling.

On the women’s side of things, we genuinely haven’t had a proper rivalry in recent times, captivating enough to match those on the men’s side of things. Sure, we have had the Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff, and Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka matchups. Still, none of these has generated as much excitement and anticipation as observed on the men’s side.

Arguably, the matchup that had the capacity to generate that legendary rivalry status is the one that never really got going: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka. Early on, most fans would have anticipated that this matchup would go on to define the women’s game, as when both players first burst onto the scene, it was immediately apparent that they possessed a powerful, imposing game style unlike the rest of the tour. It seemed a given that they would come to redefine the women’s game.

Contrasting Periods of Dominance

Unfortunately, these expectations never materialised: despite their obvious talent quite early in their respective careers and despite being only seven months apart in age, they reached the summit of the game at different points in their careers. The Japanese Osaka was the first of the talented youngsters to get her big break when she emphatically defeated Serena Williams at the US Open in 2018 to win her first Grand Slam, in what was then a shock result, becoming the first and still the only Japanese player to win such an accolade in singles. However, her expected siege on the women’s game was never really sustained long enough.

The powerful Sabalenka, on the other hand, was something of a slow burner who had to gradually work her way to the top, despite the power being evident early on. This culminated in her first Grand Slam at the 2023 Australian Open, aged 24. She has since then remained a force on the WTA tour, sometimes even being an immovable object. Unfortunately, during this period of her rise, she was ranked high enough to avoid meeting the highly ranked Osaka early on in tournaments. Still, she also failed to regularly make the latter stages of these competitions, meaning they rarely met.

In fact, it is so rare that, despite having played each other a few times, with the Belarusian winning most, they have only ever met once in a professional event, which was en route to Osaka’s US Open triumph. This match was itself a 3-set tussle that many at the time hoped was a sign of things to come. The reality is that while Sabalenka slowly clawed her way to the top of women’s tennis, Osaka’s trajectory went the other way, having dominated briefly between 2019 and 2021, particularly on hard courts, which, ironically, is Sabalenka’s most dominant surface as well. The battle for the hard courts would have further made an interesting subplot to what many hoped would be a fruitful rivalry.