ATP Adelaide Best Bets Including Paul vs Machac

ATP Adelaide semifinals

Machac – Paul: 16.01.2026 03:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1

Tomas Machac has won three of his last five matches. This week in Adelaide, Machac has yet to drop a set. In the opening round, Machac defeated Duckworth in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints. In the second round, Halys stood no chance against the Czech, who dominated on return. Although Munar is in solid form, Machac defeated him easily in straight sets. Machac offered and saved four breakpoints. This is his second appearance in Adelaide.

Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. In his opening match of the season in Brisbane, Paul lost to Mpetshi Perricard in three tight sets. Last season in Adelaide, the American lost to Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals in three tight sets. This week, Paul defeated Opelka in the opening match in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, Paul demolished Vukic in straight sets. The American dominated from the start until the end.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Machac is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated this week, losing his serve only once throughout the week. He leads 2-1 in head-to-head meetings against Paul, and it was always tight. We expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Machac covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac +2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365

Davidovich Fokina – Humbert: 16.01.2026 09:00 CEST
H2H: 3-2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won three of his last five matches. This week in Adelaide, the Spaniard outlasted Hijikata in the opening match in straight sets. He dominated from start to finish. In the second round, the Spaniard defeated Vacherot in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once, he dominated throughout the match. Last season in Adelaide, Davidovich Fokina lost to Korda in the second round in straight sets. This is his second appearance in Adelaide.

Ugo Humbert has won four of his last five matches. This is his second appearance in Adelaide and his first appearance in the main draw here. In the opening round, the Frenchman defeated Atmane in straight sets as we predicted. He offered and saved three breakpoints. Humbert defeated Griekspoor in the second round in straight sets. The Frenchman trailed 2-4 in the opening set, but turned it around. His easiest challenge came in the quarterfinals against Shevchenko. Humbert won in straight sets within an hour. He saved all three breakpoints he offered.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Humbert is a better hard-court player than Davidovich Fokina. The Frenchman enjoys playing on fast courts, and he won three solid matches this week. We expect Humbert to handle the pressure better and win.

That being said, Humbert winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert winning @1.73 @bet365