ATP Almaty Best Bets Including Khachanov vs Struff

ATP 250 Almaty 1/8-Finals

Darderi – Mochizuki: 16.10.2025 09:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Luciano Darderi has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Shanghai, Darderi lost to Musetti in the third round in straight sets. He is the fourth seed this week in Almaty. The Italian rarely succeeded on indoor hard courts.

Shintaro Mochizuki has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Jinan, Mochizuki lost to Cazaux in the semifinals of the Challenger tournament in straight sets. This week in Almaty, Mochizuki won the opening match against Cazaux in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Mochizuki is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated against Cazaux in the opening round this week and had a decent run last week in China. On the other hand, Darderi is a clay-court specialist who struggles on fast courts. We expect Mochizuki to be a better player tomorrow.

That being said, Mochizuki winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Shintaro Mochizuki winning @2.20 @bet365

Khachanov – Struff: 16.10.2025 16:00 CEST
H2H: 4-2

Karen Khachanov has lost four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Shanghai, where Shang upset him in the opening match in straight sets. He is the defending champion in Almaty. Last season, the Russian defeated Diallo in the final in three tight sets.

Jan-Lennard Struff has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Roanne, Struff was upset by Sakellaridis in the opening round in three tight sets. This is his debut campaign in Almaty. Around this time last season, Struff played in Vienna, where he lost to de Minaur in the opening round. In the opening main draw round, Struff defeated McDonald in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Khachanov is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He enjoys playing in Almaty, where he has to defend the title from the last season. Khachanov is a top 10 player, and we expect him to show his strength this week in Almaty.

That being said, Khachanov covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov -2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Walton – Medvedev: 16.10.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0

Adam Walton has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Jinan, Walton lost to Holt in the second round in straight sets. This is his debut campaign in Almaty. In the opening round, Walton defeated Schoolkate in three sets. He was great under pressure, saving six out of seven breakpoints.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Shanghai, Medvedev was stopped in the semifinals against Rinderknech, losing in three tight sets. It was a solid chance for him to win the Masters 1000 title, but he fumbled under pressure.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Medvedev is the big favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Just around two months ago, Walton won in three sets in Cincinnati under similar conditions. If the Australian serves well, we expect him to keep this match close.

That being said, Walton covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Adam Walton +4.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365