ATP Australian Open Alcaraz vs Djokovic Best Bets

ATP Australian Open final

Alcaraz – Djokovic: 01.02.2026 09:30 CEST
H2H: 5-5

Carlos Alcaraz has won eight straight matches. This week in Melbourne, Alcaraz defeated Walton in the opening round in straight sets. The Spaniard offered only one breakpoint throughout the match. In the second round, Alcaraz defeated Hanfmann in straight sets. The Spaniard trailed 1-3 in the opening set, but turned it around. In the third round, Alcaraz demolished Moutet in straight sets. Even though he lost his serve twice, Alcaraz had an easy match. In the 1/8-Finals when he defeated Paul in tight straight sets. He trailed 2-4 in the opening set, but turned it around. The Spaniard has never made it past the quarterfinals here until this season.

In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz defeated de Minaur in straight sets easily. De Minaur kept it close in the opening set, losing 5-7. After that, Alcaraz stepped up his level and lost only three games in the second and third sets. His toughest challenge happened in the semifinals against Zverev. After playing for almost six hours, Alcaraz won in five tight sets. Zverev was 5-3 up in the deciding fifth set and served for the match, but fumbled under pressure.

Novak Djokovic has won ten straight matches. This week in Melbourne, he demolished Martinez in the opening round in straight sets easily. Djokovic served extraordinarily, hitting 14 aces and not offering any breakpoints. In the second round, Djokovic demolished Maestrelli in straight sets. The Italian offered and saved four breakpoints. In the third round, Djokovic defeated van de Zandschulp in straight sets. He trailed 1-3 in the third set, but turned it around. Mensik withdrew from the 1/8-Final clash against Djokovic.

In the quarterfinals against Musetti. Djokovic was two sets down. In the third set, Musetti trailed 1-3 when he decided to retire. In the semifinals, Djokovic showed why is the greatest of all time. He upset Jannik Sinner in five tight sets after playing for over four hours. He trailed 1-2, but won fourth and fifth sets 6-4 each. Altogether in the final two sets, Djokovic saved all ten breakpoints he offered and showed once again his mental resilience. The Serb is a ten-time champion at the Australian Open. He retired mid-match against Zverev in the semifinals last season.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Djokovic is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He has nothing to lose and will play without pressure after winning such a thriller match over Sinner. On the other hand, Alcaraz has never won the Australian Open and struggled physically against Zverev. We expect a close match that could go either way.

That being said, Djokovic covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic +4.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365

Second Bet

If you love to take risks, we believe Alcaraz will be nervous coming into this match. On the other hand, Djokovic enjoys playing in Australia and will be confident coming into this matchup after defeating Zverev. We believe Djokovic has decent chances at winning the title.

That being said, Djokovic winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic winning @3.50 @bet365