ATP Australian Open Alcaraz vs Zverev Best Bets

ATP Australian Open semifinals

Alcaraz – Zverev: 30.01.2026 04:30 CEST
H2H: 6-6

Carlos Alcaraz has won seven straight matches. This week in Melbourne, Alcaraz defeated Walton in the opening round in straight sets. The Spaniard offered only one breakpoint throughout the match. In the second round, Alcaraz defeated Hanfmann in straight sets. The Spaniard trailed 1-3 in the opening set, but turned it around. In the third round, Alcaraz demolished Moutet in straight sets. Even though he lost his serve twice, Alcaraz had an easy match. His toughest challenge came in the 1/8-Finals, when he defeated Paul in a tight straight-set match. He trailed 2-4 in the opening set, but turned it around. The Spaniard has never made it past the quarterfinals here until this season.

In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz defeated de Minaur in straight sets easily. De Minaur kept it close in the opening set, losing 5-7. After that, Alcaraz stepped up his level and lost only three games in the second and third sets.

Alexander Zverev has won five straight matches. This week in Melbourne, Zverev defeated Diallo in the opening round in four sets, after losing the opening set 6-7. In the second round, the German defeated Muller in four sets. He had a poor serving performance. In the third round, Zverev outlasted Norrie in four sets. He trailed 0-2 in the opening set, but turned it around. In the fourth round, Zverev demolished Cerundolo in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once, Zverev dominated on his serve.

In the quarterfinals, Zverev outlasted Tien in four tight sets. He saved one set point in the fourth set that could have gone Tien’s way. He had an outstanding serving performance, hitting 24 aces and saving both breakpoints. Last season, the German finished as a runner-up, losing to Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Zverev is the heavy favourite underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He leads 5-3 in head-to-head meetings on hard courts against Alcaraz. If he serves well once again, we expect him to keep this match close. Two seasons ago at the Australian Open, Zverev demolished Alcaraz in four sets. We expect a close match that could go either way.

That being said, Zverev covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Zverev +6.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Second Bet

Zverev served well throughout the tournament. He has gone over the 10.5 aces line in four out of five matches at the Australian Open this season. In the quarterfinals against Tien, Zverev served 24 aces. Considering that we expect a tight match, we expect Zverev to serve at least 11 aces.

That being said, Zverev getting over 10.5 aces is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Zverev over 10.5 aces @-112 @FanDuel