ATP Australian Open Best Bets Including Alcaraz vs Paul

ATP Australian Open 1/8-Finals

Alcaraz – Paul: 25.01.2026 03:30 CEST
H2H: 5-2

Carlos Alcaraz has won five straight matches. This week in Melbourne, Alcaraz defeated Walton in the opening round in straight sets. The Spaniard offered only one breakpoint throughout the match. In the second round, Alcaraz defeated Hanfmann in straight sets. The Spaniard trailed 1-3 in the opening set, but turned it around. In the third round, Alcaraz demolished Moutet in straight sets. He has never made it past the quarterfinals here. Last season, Alcaraz was stopped by Djokovic in the quarterfinals, losing in four tight sets.

Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. This week in Melbourne, Paul defeated Kovacevic in the opening round easily in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. The American defeated Tirante in the second round in straight sets as well. Paul offered and saved four breakpoints. Davidovich Fokina retired mid-match against the American in the third round. Paul won the first and second sets 6-1, when the Spaniard decided to retire.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Paul is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated this week in Melbourne, winning all matches in straight sets. On the other hand, Alcaraz never succeeded at the Australian Open. Under these fast conditions, we expect Paul to keep this match tight.

That being said, Paul covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul +6.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365

Zverev – Cerundolo: 25.01.2026 07:00 CEST
H2H: 2-3

Alexander Zverev has won four of his last five matches. This week in Melbourne, Zverev defeated Diallo in the opening round in four sets, after losing the opening set 6-7. In the second round, the German defeated Muller in four sets. He had a poor serving performance. In the third round, Zverev outlasted Norrie in four sets. He trailed 0-2 in the opening set, but turned it around. Last season, the German finished as a runner-up, losing to Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. This week in Melbourne, the Argentine defeated Zhang in the opening round in straight sets. Besides losing his serve twice, Cerundolo dominated on his serve. In the second round, Dzumhur had no chance against him. In less than two hours, Cerundolo defeated Dzumhur in straight sets. He trailed in the opening set 0-2, but turned it around. The Argentine defeated Rublev in the third round in straight sets. He did well under pressure, saving two out of three breakpoints. Cerundolo trailed 0-2 in the third set, but turned it around.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Cerundolo leads 3-2 in head-to-head meetings against Zverev. He has yet to defeat Zverev on hard-courts. However, Cerundolo dominated this week and knows how to expose Zverev’s weaknesses. We expect Cerundolo to keep this match tight.

That being said, Cerundolo covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365