ATP Australian Open Djokovic vs Sinner Best Bets

ATP Australian Open semifinals

Djokovic – Sinner: 30.01.2026 09:30 CEST
H2H: 5-8

Novak Djokovic has won nine straight matches. This week in Melbourne, he demolished Martinez in the opening round in straight sets. Djokovic served extraordinarily, hitting 14 aces and not offering any breakpoints. In the second round, Djokovic demolished Maestrelli in straight sets. The Italian offered and saved four breakpoints. In the third round, Djokovic defeated van de Zandschulp in straight sets. He trailed 1-3 in the third set, but turned it around. Mensik withdrew from the 1/8-Final clash against Djokovic.

His toughest challenge came in the quarterfinals against Musetti. Djokovic was two sets down. In the third set, Musetti trailed 1-3 when he decided to retire. The Serb is a ten-time champion at the Australian Open. He retired mid-match against Zverev in the semifinals last season.

Jannik Sinner has won five straight matches. Gaston retired in the opening round match against Sinner after being 0-2 down. In the second round, Sinner demolished Duckworth in straight sets. He offered and saved all four breakpoints. His toughest challenge happened in the third round, when he defeated Spizzirri in four tight sets, after losing the opening set 4-6. Sinner fought with the cramps because of the heat. In the 1/8-Finals, Sinner defeated Darderi in straight sets easily. He offered and saved six breakpoints.

The Italian defeated Shelton in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Even though his first serve percentage was not at its best, Sinner comfortably defeated Shelton. He offered and saved all four breakpoints. The Italian is a back-to-back Australian Open champion, winning consecutive titles in 2024 and 2025. Last season, Sinner defeated Zverev in the final in straight sets.

Best Bets to Make

Main Bet

According to the bookies, Sinner is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Djokovic is far away from his best level. Musetti had a decent chance at winning in straight sets against him in the quarterfinals, but he got injured. Sinner won the past four head-to-head meetings against Djokovic. We expect him to dominate and win in straight sets.

That being said, Sinner winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner winning 3-0 @1.73 @bet365

Second Bet

Jannik Sinner struggled with his serve in the quarterfinal match against Shelton, serving only five aces with a 59% first serve percentage. Novak Djokovic is one of the best returners in the world. We expect Sinner not to go over the total aces line.

That being said, Sinner serving under 13 aces is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner under 12.5 aces @-118 @FanDuel