ATP Basel Best Bets Including Fonseca vs Shapovalov

ATP 500 Basel quarterfinals

Auger-Aliassime – Munar
H2H: 1-2

Felix Auger-Aliassime has won five straight matches. Last week in Brussels, the Canadian won the title, defeating Lehecka in the final. This week in Basel, he defeated Diallo in the opening round in straight sets. In the second set, Auger-Aliassime saved two consecutive set points. The Canadian defeated Cilic in the 1/8-Finals in two tiebreaks. He served 28 aces and did not offer any breakpoints. Auger-Aliassime was the champion here twice, in 2022 and 2023. Last season, he lost to Mpetshi Perricard in the second round in straight sets.

Jaume Munar has won four of his last five matches. This week in Basel, the Spaniard defeated Bertola in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. Today in the second round, the Spaniard upset Shelton in straight sets. He once again offered and saved only one breakpoint. This is his third appearance in Basel. In his previous appearances, Munar never qualified for the main draw.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Munar is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Auger-Aliassime had an outstanding serving performance today against Cilic. However, he struggled with his serve and long rallies. On the other hand, Munar played comfortably from the baseline in both matches this week. Munar leads 2-1 in head-to-head meetings, and we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Munar covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jaume Munar +3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Fonseca – Shapovalov
H2H: first meeting

Joao Fonseca has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Brussels, Fonseca lost in the opening round against van de Zandschulp in straight sets. This is his debut campaign in Basel. In the opening match, Fonseca defeated Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. Jakub Mensik withdrew from his 1/8-Final clash against Fonseca today. That said, the Brazilian had more than enough time to rest and prepare for the quarterfinals. He hopes to continue his form to get closer to the top 40 in the rankings.

Denis Shapovalov has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Stockholm, Shapovalov lost to Ruud in the semifinals in straight sets. This week, Shapovalov defeated Giron in the opening round after losing the opening set 6-7. In the deciding set, Shapovalov saved one match point. Today in the 1/8-Finals, he defeated Royer in straight sets. Shapovalov trailed 2-5 in the opening set, but turned it around. Last season in Basel, the Canadian lost to Mpetshi Perricard in the quarterfinals in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fonseca had more rest and played better than Shapovalov this week. The Canadian was on the verge of losing the opening set against Royer today. Fonseca should be better in long rallies, with both forehand and backhand being solid. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow.

That being said, Fonseca winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca winning @1.80 @bet365