ATP Beijing Best Bets Including Sinner vs De Minaur

ATP 500 Beijing semifinals

Sinner – de Minaur: 30.09.2025 08:00 CEST
H2H: 10-1

Jannik Sinner has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Beijing was at the US Open, where he lost to Alcaraz in the final in four tight sets. Since then, the Italian has taken time off to rest and prepare for the Asian swing. This week in Beijing, Sinner defeated Cilic in straight sets easily. He served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint. His toughest challenge was in the 1/8-Finals, when he defeated Atmane in three sets. Today in the quarterfinals, the Italian won against Marozsan in straight sets. Last season in Beijing, Sinner lost against Alcaraz in the final in three tight sets.

Alex de Minaur has won six straight matches. After playing for Australia in the Davis Cup, de Minaur played in the Laver Cup. He defeated Zverev and Mensik in straight sets and set the tone for the upcoming Asian swing. This will be his second appearance in Beijing. In the opening main draw round, de Minaur defeated Bu in straight sets. He served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint. In the 1/8-Finals, the Australian won against Rinderknech in three tight sets after spending over two hours on the court. Mensik retired mid-match against de Minaur in the quarterfinals.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Sinner is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Earlier this season at the Australian Open, Sinner demolished de Minaur in straight sets. De Minaur has no weapons for his game, and we expect the Italian to dominate.

That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -5.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365

Tien – Medvedev: 30.09.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0

Learner Tien has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Tien lost to Royer in the quarterfinals in three tight sets. This is his debut campaign in Beijing. In the opening main draw round, Tien defeated Cerundolo in three tight sets. After losing the opening set 4-6, Tien stepped up his level and turned the match around. He trailed in the second and third sets, but showed his resilience. In the 1/8-Finals, Tien demolished Cobolli in straight sets easily. Yesterday in the quarterfinals, Musetti retired mid-match against Tien, after trailing 0-3 in the deciding set.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. In the opening round, the Russian defeated Norrie in straight sets easily. He lost his serve twice. However, his return game was brilliant. Medvedev won against Davidovich Fokina and Zverev in the 1/8-Finals and quarterfinals in straight sets. Last season, Medvedev lost to Alcaraz in the semifinals. A year before, he finished as a runner-up.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Tien is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He played his best tennis this week in Beijing. At the beginning of the season, Tien upset Medvedev at the Australian Open. We expect a tight match that could go either way.

That being said, Tien covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Learner Tien +4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365